Who Is the NFL Rookie of the Year?

After Russell Wilson and Andrew Luck completed two amazing game winning drives (Russell Wilson did it twice, once in regulation before his defense failed him and in OT), I began to think about who should win the rookie of the year.... at least to this point in the season.

The usual suspects in the ROY discussion are obviously Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin the Third. But I think this rookie class has been under appreciated for how many rookies have not only contributed to their teams, but become prominent players on their teams in general. Quick names like Doug Martin and Trent Richardson come to mind. Even other QB's Brandon Weedon and Ryan Tannehill have held their own this season and showed some promise for the future. There is also often forgotten but more of a surprise Alfred Morris, who has more yards than Richardson and Ray Rice.

But in all honesty the ROY race comes down to the #1 and #2 overall picks in the 2012 draft, Andrew Luck and RG3. This is for several reasons, first as well as Trent Richardson has been playing, (trust me, my fantasy team thanks him) he still plays for the browns who have won 4 games, and as much as I hate using wins (which is a factor determined by your team and who you play more than people like to think), his numbers aren't as good as Doug Martin to begin with so he's out of the conversation. Doug Martin would also have fairly pedestrian numbers if it weren't for 2 crazy games against the Raiders and the Vikings where he had 486 yards rushing and receiving and 6 touchdowns. 6 touchdowns! He only has 4 TDs in the 10 other games this year. Those are not really ROY worthy numbers considering that 2 stat stuffer. 

The biggest reason why it comes down to Andrew Luck and RG3 is because they play arguably the hardest and most scrutinized position in sports. If you don't think so, just look how bad the Steelers and the Bears have looked after losing their starters to injury even though they have a playoff worthy team. Having a good to great starting QB decides whether or not a team is good or not more often than not. You can have a great QB, a lack luster defense and a poor running game and still win the Superbowl, see the Packers, Saints, Colts(with Manning). It is really hard to win without one unless you have an extraordinary defense and great run game. Even with that formula the last team to really win that way were the 2000 Ravens.

So it's natural that everyone is talking about Luck vs. Griffin because they are honestly what this race come down to. Although Russell Wilson has been great his numbers don't really compare to Luck and Griffin. But at this point of the season is it really that close a race between Luck and Griffin? 

Andrew Luck has been amazing and it is clear he has a very bright future. The fact that he has taken a 2-14 team and made them 8-4 deserves much respect. But one thing people tend to forget is that the Indianapolis Colts team last year was bad for one reason only. Peyton Manning! With a healthy Peyton, that same team is no doubt in the playoffs last year. The team was just built around a great player and Peyton's backup was far less than adequate. Another overlooked factor is how soft the Colts schedule has been. Only 1 of the colts 8 wins have come against a team that is above 500 as of today and they've only played 4 above or at 500 opponents all year. 

Luck has also had his problem with turnovers with 16 interceptions. He now has 17 tds and 16 ints and although he has accounted for 5 rushing tds he also has 9 fumbles! Luck has thrown 3 ints in 3 separate games this year. Luck's numbers are matching up close with Griffin but Griffin has a better ESPN QBR ranking, which tracks everything that a QB does for his team (Luck is 6th and Griffin is 4th). RG3 also leads him in completion percentage and NFL QB rating. RG3 has 16 touchdowns and only 4 Interceptions! Not to mention his 6 rushing tds. Protecting the ball as a quarterback is a very underrated but important trait.

RG3 also leads in the eye test. As athletic and prototypical Andrew Luck looks at quarterback, he still is no where near as electrifying and exciting to watch as RG3.

Andrew Luck is and will be a great player in the future and hopefully the football Gods put Luck and Griffin up against each other in multiple Superbowls, but regardless of how the season ends, barring some unforeseen swing in the trends, RG3 should be the Rookie of the year.

If he beats the Giants on Monday Night Football and gets the Redskins into the playoffs there will be a lot of people who aren't just naming him the ROY but he'd be a serious contender for MVP!