2014 NFL Season Previews: AFC North

The season preview continues and this division includes an intriguing one. If I did this blog just a day or or two ago it would be completely different than it is now. This division is usually very competitive and now that the Browns have a defense it is more so now. Let's dive into the preview.

1. Cincinnati Bengals:

2013: 11-5, 1st in the AFC North, lost in the wildcard round of playoffs.

Key Losses: James Harrison, Kyle Cook, Andrew Hawkins, Anthony Collins, Michael Johnson, Brandon Ghee, OC Jay Gruden, DC Mike Zimmer

Key Additions: Marshall Newhouse, Jason Campbell. Darqueze Dennard, and Jeremy Hill.

Toughest Match ups: New England Patriots, Denver Broncos,
Indianapolis Colts, and the New Orleans Saints.

2014 Outcome:
This is more of a default pick than anything. I do think that the Bengals probably have the best overall team in the division. They just seem to be lacking once playoff time comes around. They will be hurt by the losses of both their coordinators. Especially Jay Gruden who helped Mold Andy Dalton into a quarterback that nobody thought was possible. Yes Dalton came up short in the playoffs but he was a guy that threw for 33 touchdowns and over 4,000 yards. I also love Giovanni Bernard and the drafting of running back Jeremy Hill will make for an effective run game. The Bengals didn't make too many moves in the offseason but they still remain the overall best team in the division. Also Dalton has looked tremendous in preseason. It may be the preseason but it has to be good to see the offense do well after losing their defensive coordinator. I see them going 10-6.

2. Pittsburgh Steelers:

2013: 8-8. Second in the AFC North. Didn't make playoffs.

Key Losses: Al Woods, Emmanuel Sanders, Ziggy Hood, Jericho Cotchery and Jonathon Dwyer

Key Additions: Lance Moore, Mike Mitchell, Darius Heyward-Bey, LeGarrette Blount and Arthur Moats.

Toughest Match ups: New Orleans Saints, Indianapolis Colts, and Kansas City Chiefs.

Is Jay Gruden a good fit for the Washington Redskins?

Redskins new head coach Jay Gruden

The Washington Redskins have named Jay Gruden their new head coach.

There has been a lot of mixed reaction to this hire by fans and analyst alike. Most fans that comment on  sports blogs have complained about many aspects of the hiring. Most of the comment narratives have been very hypocritical.

Anybody who reads comment sections will see comments about how Washington hired the wrong Gruden, yet the Redskins have been bashed for always making "splash" or big name hires. The fans also show a distaste for Gruden because of Andy Dalton's faults. It is also full of your run-of-the-mill "The Skins will be bad as long as Dan Snyder runs the team", as well as a random Cowboys fan loving the hire for the Cowboys.

But let's focus on the narrative that surrounds the Bengals inconsistent quarterback. Many fans point to Dalton's production in the playoffs as a sign that Gruden may not be a great coach. While I do think that Dalton's play should force people to take a look at Gruden's play calling skills, it makes sense to look at Dalton first. 

Many seem to forget that Dalton was drafted in the second round after the Bengals were forced to trade Carson Palmer. The Bengals had to go with a quarterback in a year where the quarterback position was fairly poor. Dalton had a decent career at TCU(Texas Christian University) but was labeled by many evaluators as being technically sound but lacking arm strength. 

It was also ignored that despite Dalton not having an offseason in his first season, he set records with A.J. Green for receiving yards as a rookie quarterback and wide receiver duo. Gruden managed to not only have Dalton produce his rookie season but also have Dalton grow as a quarterback every year sense.

Dalton's TD-Int numbers have improved each year from 20-13 in 2011, to 27-16 in 2012 and then 33-20 in this last season. A lot of that progress has to be credited to Dalton's work effort but Gruden does deserve some credit for putting Dalton and the Bengals offense in a good position to succeed. 

Gruden's critics point to Dalton's performance in the playoff (1TD and 6 Ints in 3 games) and inconsistent play overall. 3 of those interceptions came in his rookie year where the Bengals were just happy to be in the playoffs.  Although interceptions and turnovers can happen for many different reason, it is usually the result of bad luck and poor decision making and not offensive scheme. A coach can't make a guy not throw it to a guy that was covered.

That being said Bengals offense as a whole has seen increases in each of the last 3 years in key statistics. They have also been excellent in the redzone, one of the areas the Redskins struggled in this year.

Bengals Offense Under Gruden	Total Offensive Yards	Points	Redzone Scoring Percentage (TD only)
2011	319.9 per game	21.5 per game (18th in the league)	44.4% (25th in the league)
2012	332.7 per game	24.4 per game (16th in the league)	53.4% (17th in the league)
2013	368.2 per game	26.9 per game (6th in the league)	71.4% (2nd in the league)

It's almost no question that Gruden (former quarterback) can help RGIII and the offense. Griffin has a lot more arm talent than the limited Dalton. Dalton was labeled as limited coming out of college, while Griffin was touted for his accuracy as well as his deep ball. There was never a question about Griffin's ability to read defenses, not to mention he graduated Baylor early.

Griffin's only knock was that he would sometimes not use good fundamentals on throws. Now Griffin has a coach that can teach him the value of becoming obsessed with fundamentals. Griffin wants to be great and has the tools to be great and Gruden can teach him how.

Griffin's abilities weren't in question until this year.

 Many forget that although Griffin had a "bad year" he still only throw 12 interceptions to 16 touchdowns. Those numbers are no where near as bad as a quarterback like Eli manning who threw 27 interceptions to 18 touchdowns. Manning has only thrown less than 12 interceptions twice in his career. Griffin year was rocky but was perceived to be a lot worse than it actually was.

Although Gruden runs the west coast offense, like Shanahan did, his version is different. The Shanahans system was inverted because they looked for long passes first before reading down to shorter stuff. This mean that a lot of the time RGIII had to wait for plays to develop which probably led to a lot of his sack numbers behind a questionable offensive line.

Gruden actually not only uses the WCO but he usually mixes his offense up with a lot of schemes to attack the defense. The Shanahans usually let the defense dictate what plays they were going to run. KC Clyborn wrote a great article explaining the deference in Gruden's offense versus the Shanahans that you can read here. The main thing to like about Gruden is that he did a good job of incorporating what his personnel did best in his offense. He should not only be able to make Griffin better but he should also be able to utilize guys like Roy Helu, Alfred Morris, Pierre Garcon and Jordan Reed. 

What people have failed to realize is that most of the Redskins problems this year and last year has been the defense and the special teams. Yes Griffin had an off year but there were plenty games where Griffin played decent but the defense and special teams let him down. Gruden's main task is to select great coaches that can turn around the defense and the special teams.

It has been reported that he will be keeping Jim Haslett as the defensive coordinator or promoting defensive backs coach Raheem Morris to that position. Although some of the blame has to be placed on Haslett for the woes of the defense, many of the problems were cause by a lack to cap space due to the NFL levying a salary cap restriction. It is also worth noting that he denied hiring any coaches in his opening press conference yesterday.

Now that the Redskins have ample cap space (Estimated to be around 33,581,070 by Spotrac.com) Gruden should have the tools to build up the teams defense and special teams the way that he wants. Regardless of what coaches he hires the Redskins should be able to increase the talent on the team in free agency and maybe draft a wide receiver like Florida State's Kelvin Benjamin in the draft.

It's too early to decide how well this hire will work out but Gruden has some tools to succeed in Washington. That doesn't mean it will be an easy task to fix all of the problems that are wrong with this team.

Monday Spread Option 01--06-2014

1. After a few crazy games, the NFL wildcard weekend is over. Which losing team disappointed you the most this weekend? Also which of the wildcard game winners do you think has the best chance to win the Superbowl?

Ty-

I would have to say that the Bengals disappointed me the most. Although, I can't say that I'm surprised that the Bengals lost. There was so much history and odds stacked against them. They have not won a playoff game in 23 years. The Chargers beat the the Philadelphia in the Eagles home opener this season. The last 5 teams to beat the Eagles in Philly's home opener has gone on to win the Superbowl. But thats just a fluke stat so the Bengals should have won the game but they choked in the playoffs again. Andy Dalton has so much talent around him, so it is inexcusable for him to have 1 touchdown and 6 picks in 3 playoff games. They should have been able to win at home against an 8 and 8 team easily.

As for the second questions, I'm inclined to pick the Chargers just because of the stat that I gave earlier. The Chargers have also beat the Broncos in Denver this year so we all know that the Chargers are capable of pulling off the upset. Also the last couple of SuperBowl winners have barely made the playoffs and got hot at the right time like Ravens and the Giants. Yes I know that it doesn't make much sense to bash the Bengals for not being able to beat the Chargers, but then pick the Chargers to win the whole thing. Oh well I'm just going with what happens every year.

Spencer- 

 For me I’m going with the Chiefs. Here’s why…I think the Bengals were expected to win, but with their playoff history especially, under Marvin Lewis, and the history of teams barely making it into the post season and going on a postseason run, I saw it coming. With that in mind, when all the games were said and done I had to look at the Chiefs and say what were you doing!? Now I know injuries hurt them. However, Charles was out on the opening drive and they still managed to get a 38-10 lead in the third quarter without him. Their secondary was mutilated too but last time I checked second-string players still go to practices, watch film, study their opponent and should know the Colts are basically a one dimensional offense, with their best weapon being T.Y. Hilton. A second string defense back also know if you have the deep third or half of the field YOU DON’T LET ANYONE BEHIND YOU! I know that from playing high school ball! I just don’t see how they let a 28-point lead slip away so easily and that falls on the offensive play calls too. Even with second or third string running backs in the game they should have been running the ball more in the second half. Obviously the Alex Smith intentional grounding didn't help either in a big spot for KC. Either way the Colts had no business winning that game at that point and the Chiefs had plenty of chances to close it out even with injuries and blew it.

That being said I think the 49ers are an easy pick of the teams that played this weekend to make it to the Super Bowl. They have the recipe of past champs entering the playoffs hot on a six game win streak and obviously with the experience of being in the postseason before they don’t get rattled easily. They looked poised and I wouldn’t be surprised if they made it to NYC come Feb. 2. 

Zach-
To me, it would have to be the Bengals. The Chiefs lost a very disappointing game that should have been locked up by the time they were up by 28 points, but I expected the closer match-up that they did end up having with the Colts. Plus, I think that is a team with nowhere to go but up. I didn't really expect them to go that far in the playoffs. Maybe the divisional round, but that is about it.  But I'm tired of waiting for the Bengals to be good again. This team coming into the season was a team that was supposed to make a solid playoff run. Sunday, they looked like a team that didn't belong there at all.  They were completely outclassed.  Granted, you don't want to take anything away from the streaking Chargers who are playing arguably their best football of the season right now.  But four turnovers is completely unacceptable in the playoffs. And for a team that was supposed to have the cold-weather, home field advanatge, I expected a better performance out of them.  This team supposedly has the pieces to compete. They sured up their defense this year and have found a franchise QB in Andy Dalton (although his performance is sure to come into question soon).  Why can't they win in the playoffs if they have the pieces they need? If they fall apart like this in the post season again, do not be surprised if management starts making some serious changes, starting with Marvin Lewis.

My pick for the second question is the Colts.  The defense when properly motivated has the potential to make some stops when they need to, as evident of the fact that they were able to hold off the Chiefs offense nearly the entire time they waited for the offense to respond. Combine that with Andrew Luck, who is maturing and growing every game, and the threat of T.Y. Hilton, and you have a dangerous team who is coming off a spectacular comeback with a lot of confidence.

2. The Buccaneers hired Lovie Smith and the Texans hired Bill O'Brien last week to coach their football teams. Rank the remaining 5 NFL teams (Detroit, Minnesota, Tennessee, Cleveland, Washington) from best to worst. Give reasons why?

Ty-

1. Detroit- They have the best talent throughout the team. They already have their franchise quarterback, they just need someone to bring more accountability and poise to the organization. They can possibly have a top 5 offense and a top 10 defense under the right head coach. The only drawback is that it's in Detroit.

2. Tennessee- The Titans didn't have as bad a year as you think that they did. Jake Locker was actually playing well before he hurt himself. Chris Johnson played well and Kendall Wright emerged to be a viable threat. They can easily turn their fortune around in the AFC South and contend for a playoff spot with a couple of pieces 

3. Washington- Contrary to what flip floppers are saying, RGIII is the franchise quarterback and has shown that he can be excellent when healthy and given an offseason. The Skins need to get better on defense and on the offensive line. They are hurt by not have a 1st round draft pick  but they also have tons of salary cap space to spend. They should have no problem filling holes in the secondary. The only drawback is having to work for Dan Snyder.

4. Minnesota- They don't have the best defense but they are a quarterback away from being a legitamate playoff team on a regular basis. It just sucks that viable qb's are hard to come by.

5. Cleveland- Cleveland is last on the list because it's front office seems like it doesn't know what it's doing. They just hired a coach for their bad team but then decided to fire him because they were only slightly better in his first year as a coach. Nobody is going to want to work for an organization that is known for losing, especially if they are giving that coach a short leash.



Spencer- 
1. Detroit: Obvious choice at number one here. Despite the fact that you have to live in Detroit the Lions are clearly the most talented of the teams with a coaching vacancy. Lot to build on moving forward just need the right coach to mesh it all together.

2. Washington: I know the Redskins were really terrible this year but one year removed from winning the NFC East you have to believe they have a lot of major pieces. A coach that can come in draft/sign the right guys while bringing a fresh, positive mindset to the team could have success here. I think the coach does need to understand how to use RGIII in the right ways though. That is so important to the success of the offense and the team as a whole. Otherwise a great market that tasted recent success and could certainly turn it around in a year, much like the Chiefs did this year.

3. Tennessee: With the market Tennessee is in I feel they go a little unnoticed at times, making it an appealing job (less pressure to win right away) and has kept people from seeing the Titans were 7-9 this year. That being said they played in a division with Houston and Jacksonville, went 2-2 against those teams, and only beat one team over 500 all year in the Chargers. I think the offense underperformed with Jake Locker’s absence but still some work to do on this team to be in the playoff race on both sides of the ball.

4. Minnesota: Not only is it freezing in a Minnesota but this job doesn’t have too much of an upside right now. The best news for an incoming coach is you have the best running back in the league in Adrian Peterson to run your offense through. Otherwise the team has glaring holes in the secondary (their pass defense was 31^st in the league) and not having a dominant QB to lead the offense. It’s never easy finding a franchise QB for your team and until the Vikings find that they will be one-dimensional.

5. Browns: You don’t have to tell the Browns about franchise QB’s cause they don’t even know what that is. But their QB issues aren’t even the main reason Cleveland is the worst coaching option open in the NFL. For one I am convinced they are cursed. I have never seen one call, one big play, one field goal ever go their way. That is maybe a coincidence but what’s not is the fact that there is no job security in Cleveland and with news coming out that players called the organization a joke after Chud’s firing, it is tough to be confident about your ability to get guys to buy into your system and succeed in an environment like that. Whoever takes the Cleveland job god bless him...I'll pray for you every Sunday next season.

Zach-

1. Detroit:  Matt Stafford is a good quarterback who has the option of Calvin Johnson every single game.  That is a combination that is deadly no matter what defense is up against it. And the defense isn't really that bad either.  It seems like the Lions are missing one piece that would make them a playoff-caliber team. That piece may be a good head coach.

2. Washington: There were a lot of distractions towards the end of the season for this team, a lot of them involving the head coach.  I don't think this team that made the playoffs last year is as bad as their record was.  R.G.III didn't have a fantastic year which was to be expected in his second year. It is a bit superstitious of me, but I believe in the Sophomore Slump. The good news is, he will get better. He has the potential.  This team just needs to regroup and refocus and I think they'll be right back in the post season in no time.

3. Tennessee: The Titans had a decent year this year. 7-9 is a respectable record for a team where the QB position seems to be a big question mark.  Chris Johnson certainly helped that but I think this team needs to find a franchise QB and find one quickly.  Jake Locker and Ryan Fitzpatrick are not the answer. Find a guy who the team can commit to and keep working around him. The wins will come. And in a division where two of the teams are in the bottom table of the league, this is a good time for young players to compete, learn, and win.

4. Minnesota: The Vikings have problems on their roster, no doubt about that. They don't have winners on the team and they don't have anyone who strikes me as someone who can properly turn the team around (besides AP). That aside, they also have a huge distraction on their hands involving the alleged anti-homosexuality scandal they are investigating. A good coach won't be too keen to jump into that situation.  These off the field problems have to be resolved as quickly and efficiently as possible so that they can focus on making the team better.  If they can't do that, I don't see this team improving at all.

5. Cleveland: The players are tired of losing. The fans are tired of losing. The front office is tired of losing.  Who on this team has the talent to step up and start winning? No one right now.  They need to overhaul the entire franchise.  Find a coach who can teach these guys what it means to play in the NFL. And start making draft picks that will have more than a couple good games a season. The AFC North is a hard division to play in. If you can't find guys who can play at a high level on a daily basis, do not expect to move up in the standings.

  

3. The BCS championship game between Florida State and Auburn is tonight.  Who you got? Why?

Ty-

I got the Seminoles of Florida State. Yes, Auburn played better competition but their defense has been very bad all year. Florida State has had a weaker strength of schedule but they have DOMINATED all year against those teams and higher ranked opponents. This isn't like last year where Notre Dame was in close games with teams like Pitt. It will come down to wether the Florida state defense can slow down the Auburn rushing attack enough for the Seminoles ' offense to outscore them. From what i've seen all year, I trust that the Florida State offense will be able to score on Auburn. I'm not so sure that Auburn can score as much with their rushing attack after Florida State had a month to prepare for it.

Spencer-

After going back and forth on this I am sticking with my original pick. Auburn. I think this game is going to be a shootout honestly. Auburn's defense is obviously lackluster, but their rushing offense is number two in the country and with Marshall at QB there is options and an average passing game to worry about as well. I don’t have to talk about Florida States offense they have a Heisman Trophy QB and haven’t trailed n a game since September. That being said I don’t buy into Florida States defense being as dominant as it is made out to be. It is definitely a great defense that deserves to be in the championship and has helped in the cause but I just can’t get over the fact that the games they played were against ACC teams many of which, in my opinion many, were overrated throughout the year. I’m just not that impressed when you beat Syracuse 59-3 or a #25 ranked Maryland team 63-0. That just tells me they were overrated. Sure Auburn had two once in a lifetime finished to wrap up their season, but I just think they are more battle tested and played more quality opponents. I’m excited for this match-up to see how FSU fairs against an SEC team. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a similar SEC Championship game outcome. 42-38 Auburn for the Championship.

Zach-
I'll take Florida State.  They have the best offense in college football that is lead by their explosive, Heisman winning QB Jameis Winston. Auburn is going to have a tough time stopping him and the rest of the FSU attack which can beat you on the ground or through the air.  The Tigers have the best rushing attack in the country but even they can only rely on that for so long. At some point, you'll probably have to go through the air, and Florida State is loaded with a great secondary that has the most interceptions this season.  It'll be tough to get anything going on offense once FSU's defense picks up on the running game.
 

4. With the BCS format coming to an end after tonight's championship game, will we miss it? Or is the new playoff-style format better for college football? 

Ty-
I have never liked the BCS system or the NCAA for that matter. Mainly because the BCS system just seems like a big money grab. The NCAA gets to made massive amounts of money by selling the rights to the bowls to companies and TV channels as stand alone bowl games. I understand though that they can't have a huge tournament like they do for basketball but a tournament just makes a lot more sense. There is more drama in a tournament and any thing can happen. Instead of just waiting a month for 2 teams to play, more teams can have a chance to actually prove they belong in the championship. So yes I favor the new playoff style but I also think they should expand the amount of teams to maybe 6 or 8. It's worked for the NFL so why not try it in college?

Spencer-
When the last seconds tick off the clock tonight I will let out a huge sign of relief in reaction to this joke of a system, the BCS, being over. I have wanted a playoff for years. If you look at the smaller FCS schools and even DII and DIII schools the playoff system has been their way of deciding a champion for years and it works great and just makes more sense. The BCS has never been logical and it puts so much importance on not losing even one game, especially late in the year or it may keep you from a shot at the championship (cough, cough Alabama). Imagine if in the NFL they just said the Seahawks and Broncos were the two teams in the Super Bowl because they finished with the best records this year or were ranked the highest? There would be riots in the streets over that. Also it eliminates teams calling themselves co-champions when they didn't get a shot at the championship team but were ranked #3 or #4, and felt slighted. I will preserve my judgement on the number of teams that should be in the playoff tournament until after we see how it works with four over the net few years. Regardless this move has taken too long to happen and I think it is smart for college football in keeping their relevance come bowl season and it makes it more dramatic and fun.

Zach- 
This playoff system will be the best thing to happen to college football in a long time.  Good riddance, so long, adios. Anyone who says that it takes away from the experience of the Bowl games needs to get over it.  The Bowl games mean absolutely nothing now. You could have five Orange Bowl wins and no one would care because you didn't have one BCS win.  On top of that, this system has been flawed from the start. There will never be a way to tell who is the actual best in college football until you give the top teams a chance to play each other.  This will put aside [most] doubts about National Champions and at the same time, keep the NCAA happy by bringing in lots of money that will be shared with all of six people. This system is dated and only kept alive by people who want to hold on to the past.  There is too much Parity in the NBA

5. It's early in the NBA season but who do you think has been the best team in the league so far? Which team is the biggest surprise?

Ty-

The best team in terms of how they were playing the first half of the season was the Thunder before Russell Westbrook got hurt again. The Thunder bench was ranked among the highest in the league in bench points. Jeremy Lamb, Steven Adams, Reggie Jackson and Perry Jones have all exceeded expectations for the season. Not to mention Kevin Durant has somehow been better than he was last year. Durant is posting career highs in assists and rebounds. This could be the year Durant finally wins the MVP if he continues to elevate his game during Westbrook's absence. He showed he could carry the Thunder to victory last week against the Timberwolves, where he put up 48 points and 21 points in the fourth quarter to will the Thunder to victory.


The biggest surprise this year is the Phoenix Suns! I know that the Blazers are catching some people by surprise but  expected them to be good because they had all the pieces to be good. The only reason the Blazers where bad last year was because of their bench and they fixed that in the offseason. The Suns are a complete surprise. Las Vegas projected the Suns to only have 19 wins all season and they sit at 20-12 only 2 months through the season. The reason they have been so good is because they have successfully played Eric Bledsoe and Goran Dragic together. It allows them to run pick and roll on both sides of the half court. The Morris brothers have also exceeded expectations and Gerald Green has found a way to be a reliable 3-point shooter. 

Spencer-
Recently I think the Thunder was the best team after they went on a tear in December, but with Westbrook out I can't say they are the best team right now. Obviously by record they are one of the top teams by record and should be a potential favorite to win the west but I have to say I think the Pacer's are the best team in the league so far this season. Obviously the east is lacking in good teams this year but I think the Pacers have made it clear they are in the elite group beating some of the best teams, including the defending champs. After flying under the radar last year playing in Indiana in a small market they have earned the attention now and are a complete team.

I'm torn on whether the biggest surprise team for me is the fact that Toronto is a top our team right now and right at .500 with a 16-16 record or that the Cavs have been as disappointing as they have been so far. I guess Toronto can't be that big of surprise considering how bad the east is so I'll go with Cleveland's struggles. I expected a lot more from Cleveland with Kyrie in his third year and a young team that showed promise at moments last year. 

Zach-
Like my co-authors, I  too would have picked the Thunder if not for the injury of Russel Westbrook. But I think I am going to have to go with the team that everyone loves to hate, the Miami Heat.  They have the second best record in the NBA right now and have a lot of swagger and confidence about them. We saw last year what can happen when the Heat find a groove, and if other teams aren't careful, Miami could pull away from the pack as long as they stay healthy.  Call it a cop-out answer if you want, but I am a man who tends not to pick against LeBron.

My biggest surprise goes to the whole Atlantic Division. The Raptors are currently first with a .500 record of 16-16 and other teams like the Knicks and the Nets are being left behind in the dust. However, it is still early in the season and I personally don't expect the standings to stay the same in the next couple of weeks.