Is Jay Gruden a good fit for the Washington Redskins?

Redskins new head coach Jay Gruden

The Washington Redskins have named Jay Gruden their new head coach.

There has been a lot of mixed reaction to this hire by fans and analyst alike. Most fans that comment on  sports blogs have complained about many aspects of the hiring. Most of the comment narratives have been very hypocritical.

Anybody who reads comment sections will see comments about how Washington hired the wrong Gruden, yet the Redskins have been bashed for always making "splash" or big name hires. The fans also show a distaste for Gruden because of Andy Dalton's faults. It is also full of your run-of-the-mill "The Skins will be bad as long as Dan Snyder runs the team", as well as a random Cowboys fan loving the hire for the Cowboys.

But let's focus on the narrative that surrounds the Bengals inconsistent quarterback. Many fans point to Dalton's production in the playoffs as a sign that Gruden may not be a great coach. While I do think that Dalton's play should force people to take a look at Gruden's play calling skills, it makes sense to look at Dalton first. 

Many seem to forget that Dalton was drafted in the second round after the Bengals were forced to trade Carson Palmer. The Bengals had to go with a quarterback in a year where the quarterback position was fairly poor. Dalton had a decent career at TCU(Texas Christian University) but was labeled by many evaluators as being technically sound but lacking arm strength. 

It was also ignored that despite Dalton not having an offseason in his first season, he set records with A.J. Green for receiving yards as a rookie quarterback and wide receiver duo. Gruden managed to not only have Dalton produce his rookie season but also have Dalton grow as a quarterback every year sense.

Dalton's TD-Int numbers have improved each year from 20-13 in 2011, to 27-16 in 2012 and then 33-20 in this last season. A lot of that progress has to be credited to Dalton's work effort but Gruden does deserve some credit for putting Dalton and the Bengals offense in a good position to succeed. 

Gruden's critics point to Dalton's performance in the playoff (1TD and 6 Ints in 3 games) and inconsistent play overall. 3 of those interceptions came in his rookie year where the Bengals were just happy to be in the playoffs.  Although interceptions and turnovers can happen for many different reason, it is usually the result of bad luck and poor decision making and not offensive scheme. A coach can't make a guy not throw it to a guy that was covered.

That being said Bengals offense as a whole has seen increases in each of the last 3 years in key statistics. They have also been excellent in the redzone, one of the areas the Redskins struggled in this year.

Bengals Offense Under Gruden	Total Offensive Yards	Points	Redzone Scoring Percentage (TD only)
2011	319.9 per game	21.5 per game (18th in the league)	44.4% (25th in the league)
2012	332.7 per game	24.4 per game (16th in the league)	53.4% (17th in the league)
2013	368.2 per game	26.9 per game (6th in the league)	71.4% (2nd in the league)

It's almost no question that Gruden (former quarterback) can help RGIII and the offense. Griffin has a lot more arm talent than the limited Dalton. Dalton was labeled as limited coming out of college, while Griffin was touted for his accuracy as well as his deep ball. There was never a question about Griffin's ability to read defenses, not to mention he graduated Baylor early.

Griffin's only knock was that he would sometimes not use good fundamentals on throws. Now Griffin has a coach that can teach him the value of becoming obsessed with fundamentals. Griffin wants to be great and has the tools to be great and Gruden can teach him how.

Griffin's abilities weren't in question until this year.

 Many forget that although Griffin had a "bad year" he still only throw 12 interceptions to 16 touchdowns. Those numbers are no where near as bad as a quarterback like Eli manning who threw 27 interceptions to 18 touchdowns. Manning has only thrown less than 12 interceptions twice in his career. Griffin year was rocky but was perceived to be a lot worse than it actually was.

Although Gruden runs the west coast offense, like Shanahan did, his version is different. The Shanahans system was inverted because they looked for long passes first before reading down to shorter stuff. This mean that a lot of the time RGIII had to wait for plays to develop which probably led to a lot of his sack numbers behind a questionable offensive line.

Gruden actually not only uses the WCO but he usually mixes his offense up with a lot of schemes to attack the defense. The Shanahans usually let the defense dictate what plays they were going to run. KC Clyborn wrote a great article explaining the deference in Gruden's offense versus the Shanahans that you can read here. The main thing to like about Gruden is that he did a good job of incorporating what his personnel did best in his offense. He should not only be able to make Griffin better but he should also be able to utilize guys like Roy Helu, Alfred Morris, Pierre Garcon and Jordan Reed. 

What people have failed to realize is that most of the Redskins problems this year and last year has been the defense and the special teams. Yes Griffin had an off year but there were plenty games where Griffin played decent but the defense and special teams let him down. Gruden's main task is to select great coaches that can turn around the defense and the special teams.

It has been reported that he will be keeping Jim Haslett as the defensive coordinator or promoting defensive backs coach Raheem Morris to that position. Although some of the blame has to be placed on Haslett for the woes of the defense, many of the problems were cause by a lack to cap space due to the NFL levying a salary cap restriction. It is also worth noting that he denied hiring any coaches in his opening press conference yesterday.

Now that the Redskins have ample cap space (Estimated to be around 33,581,070 by Spotrac.com) Gruden should have the tools to build up the teams defense and special teams the way that he wants. Regardless of what coaches he hires the Redskins should be able to increase the talent on the team in free agency and maybe draft a wide receiver like Florida State's Kelvin Benjamin in the draft.

It's too early to decide how well this hire will work out but Gruden has some tools to succeed in Washington. That doesn't mean it will be an easy task to fix all of the problems that are wrong with this team.

Running the Spread NFL Preview : NFC East

Running the Spread is back and to kick it off-- no pun intended-- the RTS staff will preview the upcoming NFL season.

Last season was hi-jacked by the infusion of young talented quarterbacks. Five different teams started rookie quarterbacks, most of whom were very successful. Although Robert Griffin (Washington), Andrew Luck (Indianapolis) and Russell Wilson (Seattle) out shined him, Ryan Tannehill (Miami) had a sneaky good season. Brandon Weeden (Cleveland) struggled but showed glimpses in his first season under center. Quarterback Colin Kaepernick usurped Alex Smith's job in San Francisco and led them to the Superbowl in his second year.

The 2012 season belonged to the Baltimore Ravens. After injuries and sputtering to the end of the season, the Ravens went on a miracle run in the playoffs. They beat the Colts, Broncos, Patriots and 49ers in route to winning the franchises second title.

NFC East Quarterbacks via Google

No one knows what the biggest headlines will be this year but Running the Spread is here to give our expert (By "expert" I mean that we watch a lot of football) opinion on how each team and each division's season will shake out.

NFC EAST PREVIEW:

The NFC East was once one of the strongest divisions in football but those days are far from over. The Redskins were bottom feeders for years. The Cowboys were routinely overrated by the general public for the last 5 years. The Eagles were once perennial contenders but have a new coach after a poor season, and I'm being kind. The Giants have sprinkled in some Superbowls recently but always seem to underachieve, which seems to be the years they win the Superbowl. The division has the potential to have 2 teams in the playoffs, but it has to be a favorite to be one of the divisions to only have one team in the playoffs. This does not mean that I would be surprised if a team in the NFC East made the Superbowl, it just isn't likely.

Washington Redskins

The Redskins overcame a 3-6 start, a multitude of injuries and a defensive backfield that welcomed more big plays than broadway and the Tony awards last season. Powered by their potent offense they went on a seven game winning streak after their bye week. During that span they only scored below 27 points once.

The Skins capitalized on a second half of the schedule that was division heavy. Each win in the division cleared a path for their playoff hopes. Any team that can go on a 7 game winning streak and play well within the division should be a favorite to win the division.

RGIII on the Practice field.

 This year the defense should be a lot better this year with the return of linebacker Brian Orakpo to go on other side Ryan Kerrigan. Orakpo is in a contract year and Kerrigan's play in preseason (yes I know it's preseason) shows that he's poised for a breakout year. A viable pass rush can take a lot of pressure off of a still suspect defensive backfield. Rookie Baccari Rambo will add some youth and ball hawking skills but the pass defense will still struggle at times. Defensive coordinator Jim Haslett did a masterful job of hiding deficiencies with blitz. His job should be easier with Orakpo back.

The one concern that the Redskins have is on offensive side of the ball. Their running attack with with Alfred Morris' steady play and the return of Roy Helu will still be potent. The concern is with their quarterback Robert Griffin III whom after a stellar rookie season, partially tore his LCL and re-tore his restructured ACL.  Griffin has yet to play in the preseason but all signs point to him starting week one. Although there should be some concern, after Griffin tore his ACL in college he threw for 22 touchdowns with 8 interceptions. He also ran 635 yards and eight touchdowns. He knows how to work himself back. If he is 100 percent the Redskins ceiling could be very high. It is a big if though.

Record: 10-6



New York Giants

The Giants can be really good when they want to. They usually want to be good when people count them out so I would not be surprised if the Giants have a great season. But I'm going to go with the odds that they continue to not live up to expectations.

Wilson looks to thrive this season.

The Giants still have Eli, who is not always consistent but can elevate his game to elite levels. The problem is just that he isn't very consistent after week seven last year Eli had 4 games where his quarterback rating was below 60. In his nine year career he has only had under 10 interceptions in his rookie year (nine). He has also only had less than 15 interceptions 2 times in his career. He also has two Superbowl wins and MVPs so he is capable of willing his team to high levels.

The Giants defensive line will still be stout like always although Jason Pierre-Paul is coming off an injury and they lost Osi Umenyiora in free agency. There problems will be in the defensive backfield where they lost defensive back Stevie Brown to a season ending injury.

They also lost Ahmad Bradshaw at the running back slot but if David Wilson shows how talented he is
at running back he can more than make up for the loss. Signing Brandon Myers, the big tight end from the Raiders, should help a passing attack that still has Hakeem Nicks and Victor cruz.

I expect the Giants to beat good teams in the NFL and struggle against teams that they shouldn't because I don't trust them to be consistent.

Record 8-8

Dallas Cowboys

Dez Bryant is a beast.

The Cowboys fell short of the playoffs after losing key games in december last year. This did not surprise anyone because the Cowboys are known for coming up short when it counts. Although Tony Romo is not as bad as some people perceive him, he is extremely frustrating. Romo continues to put up great numbers and has had clutch performances in games early in the season. The problem is it's only early in the season. Cowboys fans have to be frustrated that Romo is to good to want to replace but not good enough to get their team even into the playoffs most years.

The Cowboys will still be impressive at times on offense with wide receiver Dez Bryant becoming one of the best in the league. Bryant and Romo is a lethal combination that will only get better. Those two will win the cowboys some games on their own. There problems come in the ground game because besides his outstanding 200 yard game in his debut, Demarco Murray has underwhelmed at running back. Not to mention how prone Murray is to injury.

The Cowboys suffered a lot of injuries on the defensive side of the ball last year but should get a boost with middle linebacker Sean Lee coming back from his season ending injury last year. The Cowboys did fire defensive coordinator Rob Ryan last year so it is tough to tell how the defensive unit will respond to a new coach.

The Cowboys wont be good enough to overcome a fairly tough schedule against teams like the Packers, Bears, Broncos, Saints and other teams that most expect to be better than them.

Record 7-9

Philadelphia Eagles

No one knows what to expect from the Eagles under new head coach Chip Kelly. Kelly will be
implementing his quick hitting, non stop offense that worked so well when he coached for Oregon. Now that Michael Vick has officially been named the starter it has people excited for a rejuvenated Vick. Running back LeSean McCoy is also expected to have a great year.

(Chip Kelly left, Mike Vick right) look to improve.

The problem that the Eagles have is a lack of depth at the wide receiver spot after arguably their best receiver, Jeremy Maclin, went down for the season. The eagles defense might be a little different after getting rid of big play prone cornerback Nnamdi Asomugha but it is hard to tell if they will be good enough to contend in the division.

They will surprise some teams because they do have world class talent at some spots on offense. The Eagles should be better than last year but that is not really saying much. I expect Mike Vick to play better but he will still be plagued by an occasional poor decision and turnover in key situations.

Record 6-10

Let me know if you disagree with the preview in the comments and look out for a preview of your favorite division in the upcoming week as we preview the NFL season.