2014 NFL Season Previews: AFC North

The season preview continues and this division includes an intriguing one. If I did this blog just a day or or two ago it would be completely different than it is now. This division is usually very competitive and now that the Browns have a defense it is more so now. Let's dive into the preview.

1. Cincinnati Bengals:

2013: 11-5, 1st in the AFC North, lost in the wildcard round of playoffs.

Key Losses: James Harrison, Kyle Cook, Andrew Hawkins, Anthony Collins, Michael Johnson, Brandon Ghee, OC Jay Gruden, DC Mike Zimmer

Key Additions: Marshall Newhouse, Jason Campbell. Darqueze Dennard, and Jeremy Hill.

Toughest Match ups: New England Patriots, Denver Broncos,
Indianapolis Colts, and the New Orleans Saints.

2014 Outcome:
This is more of a default pick than anything. I do think that the Bengals probably have the best overall team in the division. They just seem to be lacking once playoff time comes around. They will be hurt by the losses of both their coordinators. Especially Jay Gruden who helped Mold Andy Dalton into a quarterback that nobody thought was possible. Yes Dalton came up short in the playoffs but he was a guy that threw for 33 touchdowns and over 4,000 yards. I also love Giovanni Bernard and the drafting of running back Jeremy Hill will make for an effective run game. The Bengals didn't make too many moves in the offseason but they still remain the overall best team in the division. Also Dalton has looked tremendous in preseason. It may be the preseason but it has to be good to see the offense do well after losing their defensive coordinator. I see them going 10-6.

2. Pittsburgh Steelers:

2013: 8-8. Second in the AFC North. Didn't make playoffs.

Key Losses: Al Woods, Emmanuel Sanders, Ziggy Hood, Jericho Cotchery and Jonathon Dwyer

Key Additions: Lance Moore, Mike Mitchell, Darius Heyward-Bey, LeGarrette Blount and Arthur Moats.

Toughest Match ups: New Orleans Saints, Indianapolis Colts, and Kansas City Chiefs.

Is Jay Gruden a good fit for the Washington Redskins?

Redskins new head coach Jay Gruden

The Washington Redskins have named Jay Gruden their new head coach.

There has been a lot of mixed reaction to this hire by fans and analyst alike. Most fans that comment on  sports blogs have complained about many aspects of the hiring. Most of the comment narratives have been very hypocritical.

Anybody who reads comment sections will see comments about how Washington hired the wrong Gruden, yet the Redskins have been bashed for always making "splash" or big name hires. The fans also show a distaste for Gruden because of Andy Dalton's faults. It is also full of your run-of-the-mill "The Skins will be bad as long as Dan Snyder runs the team", as well as a random Cowboys fan loving the hire for the Cowboys.

But let's focus on the narrative that surrounds the Bengals inconsistent quarterback. Many fans point to Dalton's production in the playoffs as a sign that Gruden may not be a great coach. While I do think that Dalton's play should force people to take a look at Gruden's play calling skills, it makes sense to look at Dalton first. 

Many seem to forget that Dalton was drafted in the second round after the Bengals were forced to trade Carson Palmer. The Bengals had to go with a quarterback in a year where the quarterback position was fairly poor. Dalton had a decent career at TCU(Texas Christian University) but was labeled by many evaluators as being technically sound but lacking arm strength. 

It was also ignored that despite Dalton not having an offseason in his first season, he set records with A.J. Green for receiving yards as a rookie quarterback and wide receiver duo. Gruden managed to not only have Dalton produce his rookie season but also have Dalton grow as a quarterback every year sense.

Dalton's TD-Int numbers have improved each year from 20-13 in 2011, to 27-16 in 2012 and then 33-20 in this last season. A lot of that progress has to be credited to Dalton's work effort but Gruden does deserve some credit for putting Dalton and the Bengals offense in a good position to succeed. 

Gruden's critics point to Dalton's performance in the playoff (1TD and 6 Ints in 3 games) and inconsistent play overall. 3 of those interceptions came in his rookie year where the Bengals were just happy to be in the playoffs.  Although interceptions and turnovers can happen for many different reason, it is usually the result of bad luck and poor decision making and not offensive scheme. A coach can't make a guy not throw it to a guy that was covered.

That being said Bengals offense as a whole has seen increases in each of the last 3 years in key statistics. They have also been excellent in the redzone, one of the areas the Redskins struggled in this year.

Bengals Offense Under Gruden	Total Offensive Yards	Points	Redzone Scoring Percentage (TD only)
2011	319.9 per game	21.5 per game (18th in the league)	44.4% (25th in the league)
2012	332.7 per game	24.4 per game (16th in the league)	53.4% (17th in the league)
2013	368.2 per game	26.9 per game (6th in the league)	71.4% (2nd in the league)

It's almost no question that Gruden (former quarterback) can help RGIII and the offense. Griffin has a lot more arm talent than the limited Dalton. Dalton was labeled as limited coming out of college, while Griffin was touted for his accuracy as well as his deep ball. There was never a question about Griffin's ability to read defenses, not to mention he graduated Baylor early.

Griffin's only knock was that he would sometimes not use good fundamentals on throws. Now Griffin has a coach that can teach him the value of becoming obsessed with fundamentals. Griffin wants to be great and has the tools to be great and Gruden can teach him how.

Griffin's abilities weren't in question until this year.

 Many forget that although Griffin had a "bad year" he still only throw 12 interceptions to 16 touchdowns. Those numbers are no where near as bad as a quarterback like Eli manning who threw 27 interceptions to 18 touchdowns. Manning has only thrown less than 12 interceptions twice in his career. Griffin year was rocky but was perceived to be a lot worse than it actually was.

Although Gruden runs the west coast offense, like Shanahan did, his version is different. The Shanahans system was inverted because they looked for long passes first before reading down to shorter stuff. This mean that a lot of the time RGIII had to wait for plays to develop which probably led to a lot of his sack numbers behind a questionable offensive line.

Gruden actually not only uses the WCO but he usually mixes his offense up with a lot of schemes to attack the defense. The Shanahans usually let the defense dictate what plays they were going to run. KC Clyborn wrote a great article explaining the deference in Gruden's offense versus the Shanahans that you can read here. The main thing to like about Gruden is that he did a good job of incorporating what his personnel did best in his offense. He should not only be able to make Griffin better but he should also be able to utilize guys like Roy Helu, Alfred Morris, Pierre Garcon and Jordan Reed. 

What people have failed to realize is that most of the Redskins problems this year and last year has been the defense and the special teams. Yes Griffin had an off year but there were plenty games where Griffin played decent but the defense and special teams let him down. Gruden's main task is to select great coaches that can turn around the defense and the special teams.

It has been reported that he will be keeping Jim Haslett as the defensive coordinator or promoting defensive backs coach Raheem Morris to that position. Although some of the blame has to be placed on Haslett for the woes of the defense, many of the problems were cause by a lack to cap space due to the NFL levying a salary cap restriction. It is also worth noting that he denied hiring any coaches in his opening press conference yesterday.

Now that the Redskins have ample cap space (Estimated to be around 33,581,070 by Spotrac.com) Gruden should have the tools to build up the teams defense and special teams the way that he wants. Regardless of what coaches he hires the Redskins should be able to increase the talent on the team in free agency and maybe draft a wide receiver like Florida State's Kelvin Benjamin in the draft.

It's too early to decide how well this hire will work out but Gruden has some tools to succeed in Washington. That doesn't mean it will be an easy task to fix all of the problems that are wrong with this team.