Monday Spread Option 08-25-14

1. It's back! College football finally returns this week with the same great rivalries and a new postseason format. What week one match-up are you most looking forward to watching? 

Spencer- 

Usually Week 1 of the college football season pairs a lot of mismatches, but there are still some intriguing games to look forward to. The one I am looking forward to most is probably No. 16 Clemson vs. No. 12 Georgia on Saturday. These two teams play each other every year and it is always a competitive game. Look at last years 38-35 Clemson win in Week 1. The Tigers however lost all their biggest offensive play-makers from 2013-14 and although they have new ones, such as Cole Stoudt at quarterback, I think a Georgia front seven will give them trouble. On the other side of the ball Georgia's offense will go through running back Todd Gurley who is a freak of an athlete and can take it to the house with every touch. Clemson defensive end Vic Beasley, who has great NFL potential, has other plans though. In last year's game he was a headache for the Bulldogs' backfield and will make his presence felt again.

Ty- 
Can I say none? I'm joking of course but I really am not overly excited for the first week. The teams I'm most excited to watch are UCLA and Florida State and they are both playing games that will be blowouts in all likelihood. There are some games that should be good, like Texas A&M vs South Carolina, 16 Clemson at 12 Georgia and 14 Wisconsin vs 13 LSU. But with no Johnny Manziel I'm not that compelled to watch A&M. There is also nobody on any of the teams that I stated earlier that draws me to the games. I will be watching the games though because this is where stars start to emerge and maybe a player will make me want to watch his team in week 2. But I probably will just watch my boy "Crab legs" Winston tear up Oklahoma State.

2. Staying with the college football discussion, what four teams do you predict will make the first ever college football playoff? 

2014 NFL Season Previews: NFC East

The season gets closer every day and we continue the Running the Spread Blog NFL Season Previews. We've already broken down the AFC East and NFC North. Today I'll break down the NFC East.

1. Washington Redskins

2013: 3-13, Fourth in the NFC East. Missed playoffs.

Key Losses: TE Fred Davis (suspended), S Reed Doughty, MLB London Fletcher, S Tanard Jackson (suspended), OL Will Montgomery, WR Josh Morgan, P Sav Rocca, DE Darryl Tapp, CB Josh Wilson

Key Additions: rookie CB Bashaud Breeland, WR DeSean Jackson, S Ryan Clark, DL Jason Hatcher, LB Adam Hayward, LB Akeem Jordan, OL Shawn Lauvao, P Robert Malone, OL Mike McGlynn, rookie OT Morgan Moses, rookie LB Trent Murphy, CB Tracy Porter, WR Andre Roberts, LB Daryl Sharpton

Toughest Match-ups in 2014: Philadelphia Eagles, Seattle Seahawks, Arizona Cardinals, San Francisco 49ers, Indianapolis Colts

2014 Outcome:
I know Ty is going to be pretty happy about this choice, but his fan loyalty isn't why I picked Washington to win the NFC East. In my mind they are poised for a bounce back year. Robert Griffin III struggled last year no doubt, but he was rushed back from his knee surgery and that left him hesitant at times. This year RG3 has a clear mind and has put the surgery, along with a terrible 2013 season, behind him. He has fantastic weapons offensively this year with Jackson, Pierre Garcon and Jordan Reed, which makes them very scary. Also Alfred Morris should be as reliable as he has been in his first two seasons. They're two biggest issues last season were their offensive line and their defense, two areas the addressed heavily this off-season. Bringing in lineman like Lauvao, McGlynn and two rookies in Moses and Murphy give them some depth and talent there. Defensively drafting Breeland and signing Clark and Porter helps solidify a pass defense that ranked 20th in the league last year. They lost future Hall of Fame linebacker Fletcher, but Brian Orakpo and Ryan Kerrigan will be the anchors of the squad at linebacker. Much like how I don't see Nick Foles repeating his stellar season for the Eagles, I don't see the Redskins defense repeating such a dismal one. They'll be better and put themselves in position to win an "up for grabs" division. There offense should be electric and put them in position to win any game. They're strength of schedule is in their favor too, but it's tough playing in the NFC East I never know which teams within the division they will and won't beat. 10-6 for Washington and a great start for new head coach Jay Gruden.

2. Philadelphia Eagles

Is Jay Gruden a good fit for the Washington Redskins?

Redskins new head coach Jay Gruden

The Washington Redskins have named Jay Gruden their new head coach.

There has been a lot of mixed reaction to this hire by fans and analyst alike. Most fans that comment on  sports blogs have complained about many aspects of the hiring. Most of the comment narratives have been very hypocritical.

Anybody who reads comment sections will see comments about how Washington hired the wrong Gruden, yet the Redskins have been bashed for always making "splash" or big name hires. The fans also show a distaste for Gruden because of Andy Dalton's faults. It is also full of your run-of-the-mill "The Skins will be bad as long as Dan Snyder runs the team", as well as a random Cowboys fan loving the hire for the Cowboys.

But let's focus on the narrative that surrounds the Bengals inconsistent quarterback. Many fans point to Dalton's production in the playoffs as a sign that Gruden may not be a great coach. While I do think that Dalton's play should force people to take a look at Gruden's play calling skills, it makes sense to look at Dalton first. 

Many seem to forget that Dalton was drafted in the second round after the Bengals were forced to trade Carson Palmer. The Bengals had to go with a quarterback in a year where the quarterback position was fairly poor. Dalton had a decent career at TCU(Texas Christian University) but was labeled by many evaluators as being technically sound but lacking arm strength. 

It was also ignored that despite Dalton not having an offseason in his first season, he set records with A.J. Green for receiving yards as a rookie quarterback and wide receiver duo. Gruden managed to not only have Dalton produce his rookie season but also have Dalton grow as a quarterback every year sense.

Dalton's TD-Int numbers have improved each year from 20-13 in 2011, to 27-16 in 2012 and then 33-20 in this last season. A lot of that progress has to be credited to Dalton's work effort but Gruden does deserve some credit for putting Dalton and the Bengals offense in a good position to succeed. 

Gruden's critics point to Dalton's performance in the playoff (1TD and 6 Ints in 3 games) and inconsistent play overall. 3 of those interceptions came in his rookie year where the Bengals were just happy to be in the playoffs.  Although interceptions and turnovers can happen for many different reason, it is usually the result of bad luck and poor decision making and not offensive scheme. A coach can't make a guy not throw it to a guy that was covered.

That being said Bengals offense as a whole has seen increases in each of the last 3 years in key statistics. They have also been excellent in the redzone, one of the areas the Redskins struggled in this year.

Bengals Offense Under Gruden	Total Offensive Yards	Points	Redzone Scoring Percentage (TD only)
2011	319.9 per game	21.5 per game (18th in the league)	44.4% (25th in the league)
2012	332.7 per game	24.4 per game (16th in the league)	53.4% (17th in the league)
2013	368.2 per game	26.9 per game (6th in the league)	71.4% (2nd in the league)

It's almost no question that Gruden (former quarterback) can help RGIII and the offense. Griffin has a lot more arm talent than the limited Dalton. Dalton was labeled as limited coming out of college, while Griffin was touted for his accuracy as well as his deep ball. There was never a question about Griffin's ability to read defenses, not to mention he graduated Baylor early.

Griffin's only knock was that he would sometimes not use good fundamentals on throws. Now Griffin has a coach that can teach him the value of becoming obsessed with fundamentals. Griffin wants to be great and has the tools to be great and Gruden can teach him how.

Griffin's abilities weren't in question until this year.

 Many forget that although Griffin had a "bad year" he still only throw 12 interceptions to 16 touchdowns. Those numbers are no where near as bad as a quarterback like Eli manning who threw 27 interceptions to 18 touchdowns. Manning has only thrown less than 12 interceptions twice in his career. Griffin year was rocky but was perceived to be a lot worse than it actually was.

Although Gruden runs the west coast offense, like Shanahan did, his version is different. The Shanahans system was inverted because they looked for long passes first before reading down to shorter stuff. This mean that a lot of the time RGIII had to wait for plays to develop which probably led to a lot of his sack numbers behind a questionable offensive line.

Gruden actually not only uses the WCO but he usually mixes his offense up with a lot of schemes to attack the defense. The Shanahans usually let the defense dictate what plays they were going to run. KC Clyborn wrote a great article explaining the deference in Gruden's offense versus the Shanahans that you can read here. The main thing to like about Gruden is that he did a good job of incorporating what his personnel did best in his offense. He should not only be able to make Griffin better but he should also be able to utilize guys like Roy Helu, Alfred Morris, Pierre Garcon and Jordan Reed. 

What people have failed to realize is that most of the Redskins problems this year and last year has been the defense and the special teams. Yes Griffin had an off year but there were plenty games where Griffin played decent but the defense and special teams let him down. Gruden's main task is to select great coaches that can turn around the defense and the special teams.

It has been reported that he will be keeping Jim Haslett as the defensive coordinator or promoting defensive backs coach Raheem Morris to that position. Although some of the blame has to be placed on Haslett for the woes of the defense, many of the problems were cause by a lack to cap space due to the NFL levying a salary cap restriction. It is also worth noting that he denied hiring any coaches in his opening press conference yesterday.

Now that the Redskins have ample cap space (Estimated to be around 33,581,070 by Spotrac.com) Gruden should have the tools to build up the teams defense and special teams the way that he wants. Regardless of what coaches he hires the Redskins should be able to increase the talent on the team in free agency and maybe draft a wide receiver like Florida State's Kelvin Benjamin in the draft.

It's too early to decide how well this hire will work out but Gruden has some tools to succeed in Washington. That doesn't mean it will be an easy task to fix all of the problems that are wrong with this team.

Wednesday Read Option 01-08-14

Johnny Manziel

    This is the first day I'm doing this, so let me take this chance to explain what's going on. The Wednesday Read Option will look at the the latest random sports topics of the day.

I will choose these topics at random and there might be 5 or 6 or even 7 different topics depending on what topics I fell like writing a paragraph on. This post will have an emphasis on the options (meaning I choose what I want to do basically). Now let's move on to the topics!

1. Johnny Football is NFL bound!

If you haven't heard for some reason, Texas A&M quarterback Johnny Manziel has declared that he is going to enter the NFL draft in May. I'm sure most people--including me-- are not surprised that he came out. I mean there was a report that Manziel couldn't even attend regular classes because of how popular he has become on campus.

He won the Heisman trophy his freshman year, so he has already achieved a height that most college football players never attain. The only thing Johnny Football (Or J-Mula, the nickname I just made up for him) had left to do was win a National Championship, which wasn't going to happen soon unless A&M drastically improved their defense which ranked 96th in the nation in points against.

The real question now is how Manziel will translate to the NFL. This question has come up alot because of his size and frame. Manziel is listed at 6'1'' and 210 pounds which really seem like generous estimations. I do believe that he can succeed in the NFL if his future team adapts to what makes J-Mula great. He probably shouldn't run as much as he does now but if he uses his magic to scramble and find open receivers like Russell Wilson does than size shouldn't matter. If I am the Browns or the Jaguars I take him in the first round.

Frank Thomas

2. Only 3 Players made it into the Baseball Hall of fame.

Last year the sports writers didn't vote anybody into the hall of fame. There was only 3 people inducted by the pre-integration committee but none of them where living.

This year there is only 3 (Frank Thomas, Tom Glavine, Greg Maddux) and there has been backlash to the process that decides inductees. Basically sportswriters, most of whom haven't played baseball, decide who makes it into the hall of fame. I'm not saying that sports writers don't know what they are talking about but man are they stingy with who they induct.

I don't pretend to know a lot about baseball but I do know that guys like Barry Bonds and Mark McGwire deserve a little more consideration at least for what they have done for baseball. Even if you don't want to let McGwire in Bonds should be. Even before the steroids speculations Bonds had the numbers to warrant being in the hall of fame.

It was called the "Steroids Era" so most likely those guys where hitting home runs from guys who were on steroids as well. I say just except that era of baseball and move on from it. That being said, I can't really blame people who are hesitant to reward somebody who they think was cheating.

Smith Untying Marion's shoe laces.

3. New York Knicks Reportedly put J.R. Smith on the trading block.

The Knicks continue to be the Knicks as usual. Not that putting Smith on the trading block is a dumb move. It is probably the right move but it seems like they are doing it because J.R. Smith tried to untied or tried to untie opponents shoes.

Smith probably should have been on the trading block a month ago when it was apparent that he was having a terrible season. Smith is shooting career worst 34% from the field and 33% from 3. His offseason back surgery has definitely affected his playing ability. He has been reduced to just jacking up 3's and long 2's.

I doubt the Knicks will get any serious return for Smith but there might be a few contending teams willing to take a flier on a scorer off the bench. But teams will shy away from taking on a guy known for jacking up shots. Specially one that is shooting so terrible from the field.

Update:

According to Yahoo! Sports' Adrian Wojnarowski, J.R. Smith trade talks are a scare tactic. This is because to no one's surprise, there isn't a market to trade him.

4. Jay Gruden is the Redskins leading HC' Candidate.

Bengal's OC Jay Gruden

According to multiple sources Cincinnati Bengals Offensive Coordinator Jay Gruden is the leading candidate to replace Shanahan as the Redskins coach. It has also been reported that he prefers the Titans head coaching job. I don't blame him for not wanting to be apart of the chaos in D.C.

That being said I also don't know if Jay Gruden is the right candidate because I can't decide if he has done a great job making Andy Dalton a lot better than he is. Or if we should credit Gruden for some of Daltons faults. Let's mind the fact that most of the Bengals offense was predicated on throwing the ball up to the talented A.J. Green.

The force feeding of their offense to green has to be a big reason that they have burnt out in the playoffs where teams try to take away your best options the most. Gruden could vary well be a good fit but based off of his resume I don't see why he would be the front runner. The Redskins might be best served to go with a more innovative offensive coordinator like Seattle's Darrell Bevell or The Broncos' Adam Gase. I also think a defensive minded coach wouldn't be bad as well but there are other coaches that have good resumes. Also James Franklin from Vanderbilt might be a great candidate.

I will say it does seem like the Redskins are doing their due diligence and interviewing a bunch of different head coaching candidates. The reason they might be thorough in the search may also be some of the hesitation for coaches to want to work for the organization. Many probably have reservations about the disfunction that surrounds Washington's owner Dan Snyder.

5.  RGIII Character Continues to be Assaulted.

Robert Griffin III

I know this is two posts but I have become irked by the amount of reports that have come out about Robert Griffin since the season has gone down the tank. The first crazy report was that Griffin asked to not watch his own mistakes during film study. The report has proven to be false, which honestly if believed that somebody in the NFL didn't want to watch his mistakes in order to learn from them unlike every football player since freshman year of football, you have to be pretty gullible.

There is no way anybody would even seriously entertain that idea. All the people that attack Griffin for being a madonna are ignoring a lot of key facts about the redskins season. First, where did all this nonsense about Griffin not being able to read defenses, poor work ethic, and attitude come from? The guy graduated from college early, was a proficient passer in college, not a runner like a Tim Tebow and was regarded for having great character coming out of college.

Yet there has been many reports about teammates having rifts with Griffin because of a relationship with the owner Dan Snyder. Santana Moss was quoted as saying Griffin needed to take more responsibility but I don't remember a press conference where he didn't. I do see Griffin speaking to the media after losses while some Redskins players let him take the blame for the season.

Last season Griffin had a whole offseason to work and healthiness, which led to him playing well in the season. People forget that the Redskins started 3-6 mainly due to a poor defense and questionable game management by the coaches. Mike Shanahan actually gave up on the season at that point and then the Redskins went on a 7 game winning streak that heavily featured Griffin and some improvements by the defense.

This year the Skins where predicted to be better because of Griffin but also because an improved defense. Yet the defense was last in the league in points allowed and the special teams was one of the worst in NFL history. Yes Griffin played a lot worse but putting that much pressure on a 2nd year QB coming off of an injury is unrealistic for a team this bad.

Anybody who believes otherwise must not have watched the games or the last 3 games where the same problems with the defense and special teams occurred under Kirk Cousins as QB.  The Redskins were terrible in every aspect of the team. Including coaching which is why Shanahan was fired after having losing seasons in 3 of the 4 years.

Running the Spread NFL Preview : NFC East

Running the Spread is back and to kick it off-- no pun intended-- the RTS staff will preview the upcoming NFL season.

Last season was hi-jacked by the infusion of young talented quarterbacks. Five different teams started rookie quarterbacks, most of whom were very successful. Although Robert Griffin (Washington), Andrew Luck (Indianapolis) and Russell Wilson (Seattle) out shined him, Ryan Tannehill (Miami) had a sneaky good season. Brandon Weeden (Cleveland) struggled but showed glimpses in his first season under center. Quarterback Colin Kaepernick usurped Alex Smith's job in San Francisco and led them to the Superbowl in his second year.

The 2012 season belonged to the Baltimore Ravens. After injuries and sputtering to the end of the season, the Ravens went on a miracle run in the playoffs. They beat the Colts, Broncos, Patriots and 49ers in route to winning the franchises second title.

NFC East Quarterbacks via Google

No one knows what the biggest headlines will be this year but Running the Spread is here to give our expert (By "expert" I mean that we watch a lot of football) opinion on how each team and each division's season will shake out.

NFC EAST PREVIEW:

The NFC East was once one of the strongest divisions in football but those days are far from over. The Redskins were bottom feeders for years. The Cowboys were routinely overrated by the general public for the last 5 years. The Eagles were once perennial contenders but have a new coach after a poor season, and I'm being kind. The Giants have sprinkled in some Superbowls recently but always seem to underachieve, which seems to be the years they win the Superbowl. The division has the potential to have 2 teams in the playoffs, but it has to be a favorite to be one of the divisions to only have one team in the playoffs. This does not mean that I would be surprised if a team in the NFC East made the Superbowl, it just isn't likely.

Washington Redskins

The Redskins overcame a 3-6 start, a multitude of injuries and a defensive backfield that welcomed more big plays than broadway and the Tony awards last season. Powered by their potent offense they went on a seven game winning streak after their bye week. During that span they only scored below 27 points once.

The Skins capitalized on a second half of the schedule that was division heavy. Each win in the division cleared a path for their playoff hopes. Any team that can go on a 7 game winning streak and play well within the division should be a favorite to win the division.

RGIII on the Practice field.

 This year the defense should be a lot better this year with the return of linebacker Brian Orakpo to go on other side Ryan Kerrigan. Orakpo is in a contract year and Kerrigan's play in preseason (yes I know it's preseason) shows that he's poised for a breakout year. A viable pass rush can take a lot of pressure off of a still suspect defensive backfield. Rookie Baccari Rambo will add some youth and ball hawking skills but the pass defense will still struggle at times. Defensive coordinator Jim Haslett did a masterful job of hiding deficiencies with blitz. His job should be easier with Orakpo back.

The one concern that the Redskins have is on offensive side of the ball. Their running attack with with Alfred Morris' steady play and the return of Roy Helu will still be potent. The concern is with their quarterback Robert Griffin III whom after a stellar rookie season, partially tore his LCL and re-tore his restructured ACL.  Griffin has yet to play in the preseason but all signs point to him starting week one. Although there should be some concern, after Griffin tore his ACL in college he threw for 22 touchdowns with 8 interceptions. He also ran 635 yards and eight touchdowns. He knows how to work himself back. If he is 100 percent the Redskins ceiling could be very high. It is a big if though.

Record: 10-6



New York Giants

The Giants can be really good when they want to. They usually want to be good when people count them out so I would not be surprised if the Giants have a great season. But I'm going to go with the odds that they continue to not live up to expectations.

Wilson looks to thrive this season.

The Giants still have Eli, who is not always consistent but can elevate his game to elite levels. The problem is just that he isn't very consistent after week seven last year Eli had 4 games where his quarterback rating was below 60. In his nine year career he has only had under 10 interceptions in his rookie year (nine). He has also only had less than 15 interceptions 2 times in his career. He also has two Superbowl wins and MVPs so he is capable of willing his team to high levels.

The Giants defensive line will still be stout like always although Jason Pierre-Paul is coming off an injury and they lost Osi Umenyiora in free agency. There problems will be in the defensive backfield where they lost defensive back Stevie Brown to a season ending injury.

They also lost Ahmad Bradshaw at the running back slot but if David Wilson shows how talented he is
at running back he can more than make up for the loss. Signing Brandon Myers, the big tight end from the Raiders, should help a passing attack that still has Hakeem Nicks and Victor cruz.

I expect the Giants to beat good teams in the NFL and struggle against teams that they shouldn't because I don't trust them to be consistent.

Record 8-8

Dallas Cowboys

Dez Bryant is a beast.

The Cowboys fell short of the playoffs after losing key games in december last year. This did not surprise anyone because the Cowboys are known for coming up short when it counts. Although Tony Romo is not as bad as some people perceive him, he is extremely frustrating. Romo continues to put up great numbers and has had clutch performances in games early in the season. The problem is it's only early in the season. Cowboys fans have to be frustrated that Romo is to good to want to replace but not good enough to get their team even into the playoffs most years.

The Cowboys will still be impressive at times on offense with wide receiver Dez Bryant becoming one of the best in the league. Bryant and Romo is a lethal combination that will only get better. Those two will win the cowboys some games on their own. There problems come in the ground game because besides his outstanding 200 yard game in his debut, Demarco Murray has underwhelmed at running back. Not to mention how prone Murray is to injury.

The Cowboys suffered a lot of injuries on the defensive side of the ball last year but should get a boost with middle linebacker Sean Lee coming back from his season ending injury last year. The Cowboys did fire defensive coordinator Rob Ryan last year so it is tough to tell how the defensive unit will respond to a new coach.

The Cowboys wont be good enough to overcome a fairly tough schedule against teams like the Packers, Bears, Broncos, Saints and other teams that most expect to be better than them.

Record 7-9

Philadelphia Eagles

No one knows what to expect from the Eagles under new head coach Chip Kelly. Kelly will be
implementing his quick hitting, non stop offense that worked so well when he coached for Oregon. Now that Michael Vick has officially been named the starter it has people excited for a rejuvenated Vick. Running back LeSean McCoy is also expected to have a great year.

(Chip Kelly left, Mike Vick right) look to improve.

The problem that the Eagles have is a lack of depth at the wide receiver spot after arguably their best receiver, Jeremy Maclin, went down for the season. The eagles defense might be a little different after getting rid of big play prone cornerback Nnamdi Asomugha but it is hard to tell if they will be good enough to contend in the division.

They will surprise some teams because they do have world class talent at some spots on offense. The Eagles should be better than last year but that is not really saying much. I expect Mike Vick to play better but he will still be plagued by an occasional poor decision and turnover in key situations.

Record 6-10

Let me know if you disagree with the preview in the comments and look out for a preview of your favorite division in the upcoming week as we preview the NFL season.