Just 17 days. That's how long we have to wait for the NFL season to return. In honor of the occasion Running The Spread Blog is breaking down the upcoming season division by division.
Today we begin with the AFC East.
1. New England Patriots
2013: 12-4, won the AFC East. Lost in AFC Championship Game.
Key Losses: RB LaGarrette Blount, CB Aqib Talib, LB Brandon Spikes, LB Dane Fletcher and TE Mathew Mulligan.
Key Additions: CB Darrelle Revis, CB Brandon Browner, Rookie DL Dominique Easley, S Patrick Chung, WR Brandon LaFell, DE Will Smith and LB James Anderson
Toughest Match-ups in 2014: Kansas City Chiefs, Cincinnati Bengals, Chicago Bears, Denver Broncos, Indianapolis Colts, Green Bay Packers
2014 Outcome:
the secondary, as well as Smith and Anderson at linebacker. I'm definitely not worried about a loss like Talib because Revis is a better defender than him anyway, arguably the best in the game. Those other guys give them depth defensively, which they didn't have last year. Easley is coming off an ACL injury and is slowly working his way into practice. As a rookie he'll probably get out to a slow start as he regains a feel for the game, but he certainly has the potential to be dangerous for them upfront. Offensively LaFell adds some more depth at receiver for Brady following a year where his options were limited and inexperienced. Rob Gronkowski's return from injury obviously helps the cause as well, but New England needs him to stay healthy. If he does Brady has a number of solid targets to throw to, and that can make this offense extremely dangerous. I predict that the AFC East title will once again reside in New England.
2. Miami Dolphins
2013: 8-8, tied for second in the AFC East. Missed playoffs. Key Losses: DB Chris Clemons, OL Richie Incognito, OL Jonathan Martin, DL Paul Soliai
Key Additions: OL Brandon Albert, DB Louis Delmas, DB Cortland Finnegan, rookie OL Ja'Wuan James, RB Knowshon Moreno and OL Shelley Smith
Toughest Match-ups in 2014: New England Patriots, Kansas City Chiefs, Green Bay Packers, Chicago Bears, San Diego Chargers, Denver Broncos.
2014 Outcome:
The Dolphins made progress in 2013 as a whole. We all knew they were a younger team with a young quarterback but they have slowly been building up to be a more competitive team overall. The biggest question mark heading into this season is the offensive line. Ryan Tannehill was sacked a franchise-record 58 times last season. They lost Incognito and Johnathan Martin, obviously, after the bullying debacle but the loss may be a good thing after Tannehill spent most of the season on his back. They certainly addressed their need for offensive lineman by signing three of them, one of which was their first overall pick in the 2014 NFL Draft, James. He is certainly a rookie that can have an immediate impact. If Tannehill can stay on his feet the Dolphins offense can be really good. They have a solid receiving core highlighted by Mike Wallace, and they added Knowshon Moreno who is coming from Denver, where he was an active piece of the most high powered offense in the history of the game. Defensively Miami was in the middle of the road last year but I think they will improve this season, enough to finish in second in the division. I predict about a 9-7, 10-6 record this year, maybe a playoff appearance as a wild card. What's more important though is the progress this team will make for the future.
3. New York Jets
2013: 8-8, tied for second in the AFC East, missed playoffs.
Key Losses: CB Antonio Cromartie, WR Santonio Holmes, OT Austin Howard, S Ed Reed, QB Mark Sanchez and TE Kellen Winslow
Key Additions: rookie TE Jace Amaro, WR Eric Decker, rookie WR Shaq Evans, OT Breno Giacomini, RB Chris Johnson, CB Dimitri Patterson, rookie S Calvin Pryor, rookie WR Jalen Saunders and QB Michael Vick.
2014 Outcome:
J-E-T-S JETS, JETS...Hold on Jets' fans...although the Jets will be a different team, they just aren't talented enough to get past their division rival New England. For me, one the biggest question mark is who will actually start at quarterback, Geno Smith or the veteran Vick. I think Vick should start and give Smith a chance to learn from a dual threat QB that has been around a time or two. That year of watching and learning COULD, and that's a very questionable could, help him be the team's future. Still I don't think Smith has enough tools to be a franchise QB in the NFL. I did really like the Decker pick up for New York. Adding receiving options is never a bad thing. They also added Chris Johnson at running back, which is kind of a low risk high reward pick up to me, because although Johnson is far from the 2,000 yard runner he was in 2010, he can still be effective and is obviously very quick. The Jets front seven should be pretty solid as they have been in previous years, but their secondary is very weak. They lost Cromartie who was probably their best corner last season and they have had a lot of injury problems back there to start the preseason. I see the Jets staying about the same or average if you will 8-8, and Rex Ryan will most likely be on the hot seat.
4. Buffalo Bills
2013: 6-10, fourth in the AFC East. Missed playoffs.Key Losses: S Jairus Byrd, WR Stevie Johnson and DC Mike Pettine
Key Additions: rookie WR Sammy Watkins, LB Brandon Spikes, LB Keith Rivers, CB Corey Graham, rookie OL Cyrus Kouandjio and rookie OL Cyril Richardson
Toughest Match-ups in 2014: Chicago Bears, San Diego Chargers, New England Patriots, Kansas City Chiefs, Denver Broncos, Green Bay Packers
2014 Outcome:
Sorry in advance to my Bills fans out there...But I'll start by saying despite the fact that I see them finishing in fourth again, they will make a lot growth this season. I obviously love the Sammy Watkins pick, gave up a lot to get him but he has the potential to be a star in the NFL and the best part is he was excited to be part of the franchise. They lost Stevie Johnson obviously but added Mike Williams, and I love the upside of both Robert Woods and Marquise Goodwin. There is no doubt they have a great young receiving core. No one can argue with having C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson in the backfield either. The only worry offensively for me, is if E.J. Manuel is their guy. The offense obviously has great potential but it only goes as Manuel goes. This is the year for him to prove he has what it takes to run this team. If he does then I may be completely off with this fourth place finish. Defensively they lost Byrd, which hurts, as well as their defensive coordinator Mike Pettine. The defense was solid last year and adding Spikes, Rivers and Graham helps, but obviously Kiki Alonso's season ending injury was a huge blow. Still even without him I think the defense plays very well this year, just not enough to win the division. I know Buffalo fans are tired of hearing this, but the Bills are really getting there. My guess is a 7-9, 8-8 finish this season, but this season is more about finding out if Manuel is the franchise quarterback that will take this team to new heights.
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