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Monday, March 24, 2014

Monday Spread Option 03-24-14

1) Another fantastic first weekend of March Madness is in the books and after a number of upsets, buzzer beaters and instant classics we have out Sweet 16. Which game was your favorite from the weekend and is there any team you are pulling for now? 


Spencer-
There were so many great games this weekend it really is hard to pick just one, but for me I think it was Wichita State and Kentucky yesterday. That game was so awesome, it was like a heavyweight fight. One team would throw a knockout punch, the other would swing right back. It was back and forth down to the wire and it sums up what the tournament is about because despite everyone doubting Kentucky's ability to make a run, they stepped up when it mattered most and took down a great team in Wichita State. As far as who to cheer for I kind of have two options really. Despite Dayton taking down my Orange I think I'm pulling for them as my Cinderella story team, but also my bracket isn't dead yet with all my Final Four picks remaining so I obviously have to cheer for my pick to win it all, Florida.



Ty-
I agree with Spencer that there were a ton of good games this first weekend. I think the best game that I saw was a tie between the Dayton and Ohio State game and the N.C. State vs. St. Louis. The Dayton and Ohio State game ended in some back and fourth potential game winners and Aaron Craft just barely missed his running layup as time expired. The St. Louis game had the Bilikens overcoming a pretty decent defecit with 2 minutes to go to tie the game and go to overtime. Overall I would give the whole NCAA weekend an A for the number of great games and upsets. We definitely saw the upsets coming just because of the many upsets in the seasons. The team I am rooting for now is UCLA. I don't know why because I picked Florida to win the tourney but I love the way this UCLA team plays now under Steve Alford. Their ball movement and shooting is wonderful to watch. It's literally the complete opposite of what Ben Howland did at UCLA for the longest. Also Kyle Anderson is a great point forward, a big guy who is great at passing.

2) Three double digit seeds/potential Cinderellas advanced to the Sweet 16, (#11 Tennessee, #11 Dayton and #10 Stanford) which one has the best chance to reach the Final Four?


Ty-
I think that Tennesee has looked the best out of all of those high seeds. It also worth noting that Tennessee was also in the 1st round play in game. But they have looked great against Umass and Mercer. It kind of caught a break before the sweet 16 but now they have to beat a Michigan team that has looked great. I personally don't think any of the double digit seeds will make it to the final four though. Obviously Dayton and Stanford plays each other so at least one will make it to the elite 8 but these teams might have gotten this far due to good matchups in the earlier round and are still inconsistent teams.

Spencer-
I think all three of these teams have proved they are more than just underdogs and have the country watching them now. That being said I think Tennessee will have the toughest road to the Final Four facing Michigan here next weekend and then having either Kentucky or Louisville next. Then it comes down to Stanford or Dayton for me, which is tough. I believe Dayton is a solid team and that the A10 is a more competitive conference than people give it credit for. However I just feel that they are the one true Cinderella here as well because until they went on a run at the beginning of February they weren't even a bubble team. What they have done is spectacular and I am rooting for them, but I just think they are going to run into a team similar to them in Stanford that will end their run. Both teams have younger squads with just a few seniors who kind of lead the charge but they play well together and use each other effectively. They both play true team basketball. I just think Stanford's experience with some other Sweet 16 teams like UConn, Arizona and UCLA will benefit them in this match up.

3) Last week potential NFL Quarterback Teddy Bridgewater held his Pro Day and underperformed in the eyes of NFL Scouts and front office personnel. Do you think a players Pro Day performance should have such drastic impact on them getting drafted and what QB do you think will be the first taken? 


Spencer-
The Pro Day is like the combine for me. I understand it is another way for players to showcase themselves and potentially build their draft stock but I just feel like it has become for black and white where doing your Pro Day either helps you or hurts you, there is no in between. I just don't enjoy assessing talent when a player is wearing gym shorts. I want to know what you can do with full pads on with a 265 lb middle linebacker running full steam ahead toward you looking to take your head off. What kind of plays do you make in those situations is more important than what you do on a wide open field with guys running routes with no defense covering them. Unless a QB is drastically missing wide open receivers then it shouldn't play such huge role in their draft ability. The other thing about it is it is misconstrued by the media too because they throw out all these examples of oh well this guy had a bad Pro Day and didn't pan out in the NFL but never mention the guys who had bad Pro Days who did pan out. Scouts said Tom Brady couldn't throw a tight spiral and lacked arm strength when he was being scouted and now he is a Hall of Famer. Bottom line is it is an inexact science so I don't like the mask that is put over it where we pretend scouts have all the answers and know how to evaluate how good a player will be. It's fake.

Ty-
I have always been a proponent of the fact that game film should be a lot more telling for a draft prospect and not stupid workouts with no opponents. I am sure that Teddy Bridgewaters pro day has hindered his draft prospect to an extent but I still would take him over the other quarterbacks in the draft. Bridgewater's best atribute was mechanics and accuracy and those are things that help young quarterbacks to already have that ability to build on. Johnny Manziel is prolific but he was definitely a guy who throw a lot of risky passes that you can't throw in the NFL. I also am not sold on Bortles but he has a big body and all the other measurables that NFL scouts love way too much. But I think a smart teams isn't putting a ton of weight on a guys combine or pro day but using it as a reference to the knowledge they gained from watching game tape.


4) The Heat have been struggling as of late posting a 6-7 record in the month of March. Chris Bosh called his team out over the weekend saying "If we don't change this we'll be watching the championship from home." Do you think the Heat are finally unraveling or are they still a favorite to win it all? 




Ty-
I don't think the Heat are the favorite to win it all. I don't know who is the favorite to win it all actually. There are a lot of contending teams that are struggling right now. The only teams that aren't are the Spurs and the Clippers but I have questions about both those teams so I can't see them as outright favorites. I think that the Heat can right the ship but this is new territory for them. They have struggled early in the season before in the "Big 3" era but never have they gone into a funk this late into the year like this. There is only about 12 games left for most teams so the heat don't have a tone of time to right the ship but they are looking like a teams that could lose to a team in the playoff that has a good matchup against them. Before they were good enough to still beat a team that matched up well against them but  they are looking too iffy. This makes me excited for the NBA Finals because last year I knew in early March that the Heat were going to win the championship but this year I have no idea how the Playoffs are going to play out.

Spencer-
It's not fair to necessarily rule the Heat out as championship contenders at this point because we all know and have seen how good they can be. Plus as long as they have Lebron they have a chance. However it should raise some eyebrows that they are struggling because obviously we have come to expect a lot more from them as a championship caliber team. To answer the question specifically I don't think they can be considered a favorite to win it all right now because there are a number of teams, mostly in the west, that are proven power houses and would take down the Heat easily the way they are playing right now. I'm not counting them out though by any means because I know they can get back to that championship form that they are lacking right now.



5) What we learned:



Spencer- Cinderellas lead to bad basketball

Obviously Cinderellas are a major part of the NCAA Tournament and part of what makes it fun to watch, but the one bad thing about them is that they lead to bad basketball games in the later rounds of the tournament. Now sometimes there is that one Cinderella team that plays competitive with teams in every game like Wichita State last season, but I don't know if that was as much a Cinderella story as it was they were actually a good team. Regardless this year was a perfect example already of my point. I can't remember a year where there were so many first round upsets than this year, but only three double digit seeds managed to make it out as the "Cinderellas" in the end while the other potential candidates looked like they were a CYO team.

First we got Mercer who took down Duke 78-71 in the first round, but went on to the second round only to get blown out by Tennessee by 20 points 83-63. There was North Dakota State who got the 80-75 upset over Oklahoma in the first round and then went on to lose to San Diego State 63-44. Then you have Stephen F. Austin who got the 77-75 win over VCU and advanced to play UCLA who won the game 77-60. With these blowouts fresh in my mind it just reminds me that we see this every year and that although Cinderellas make the bracket fun for a while they reach a point where they become who we thought they were. For those three squads we saw it in the round of 32, for Tennessee, Dayton and Stanford it may be coming too.

Now I'm not saying to not want Cinderellas at all, because I understand the drama attached to them and they are easy to cheer for, but I am saying that the less Cinderellas there are, the better the tournament ends up being. The games are just more competitive and more evenly matched that way. Regardless it always seems to work itself out every year where the better teams make it to the Final Four for a shot at the title and I'm sure it will again this year.

(Ty/ Editors Note: That Cinderella Nae Nae Doeeeeee)






Ty- Should I Stay or Should I Go?

Jabari Parker, Andrew Wiggins and Joel Embiid all say they are not sure if they want to enter the draft this year or not. Jabari actually said that Duke's first round loss to Mercer makes his collegiate career incomplete. I have always been team go get your money but I also understand if these guys want to stay in college and enjoy that experience. These guys are really young and as a college student I know that the college atmosphere is a great experience for most people.

 But I don't think that they should stay for the cliche of getting better because they can definitely come out in the draft and get better with a team  as they get played. The only person that might makes sense for them to stay is Embiid because he hasn't been playing basketball that long but Serge Ibaka came into the NBA the same way and developed into a great player in the NBA in a relatively short amount of time.

Both Andrew Wiggins and Jabari Parker have what it takes to succeed in the NBA. Parker is definitely a polished scorer and will be real great. I do think that one more year could be great for Wiggins because maybe next year he would be more aggressive as a Sophmore. It would be great for college basketball but I really don't think that these guys can get that much better going back to school and playing basketball part time and going to school. While if they went to the NBA they are working on their game every single day with proven NBA coaches grooming them to play in the NBA.

Although I wouldn't mind these guys staying another year I don think that it doesn't help them as much as people think. These guys are already projected to go high in the NBA draft so staying another year might only hurt them like it did to Marcus Smart.


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