The 2014 Major League Baseball season officially underway after the Padres 3-1 win over the Dodgers last night! (Games played in Australia don't count for me) Opening Day is one of the best days of the year and I for one am excited for the season to get started and hopefully cheer my Red Sox to a title defense. In honor of the big day though I wanted to breakdown the season, division by division and give my potential playoff picture and World Series Champion.
AL East:
The AL East is arguably the toughest division this season with the Red Sox returning much of their championship roster from a year ago and four revamped and re-energized teams right there in the mix. The Yankees perhaps had the biggest off-season, spending nearly half a billion dollars adding Jacoby Ellsbury, Brian McCann, Carlos Beltran and Japanese phenom Masahiro Tanaka. The Rays spent most of the off-season focused on retaining core pieces of their playoff contending roster from last season and with two terrific rookies (Will Myers and Chris Archer) returning for their sophomore campaigns they look to only be an improved team. Then you have the Blue Jays who severely underperformed last season who have the personnel from top to bottom to make a quick turn around and an Orioles team that bolstered its offense with the pick up of Nelson Cruz and their pitching rotation with the signing of Ubaldo Jimenez that can certainly contend as well. With so many strong teams it is hard to pick just one but looking at it all on paper at the beginning of it all I think the final standings will turnout like this:
1: Tampa Bay
2: Boston (Wildcard)
3: New York
4: Baltimore
5: Toronto
I'm buying into Tampa Bay like much of the other experts. I think they have the pitching staff to beat anyone and their younger roster will back them and improve as the season progresses. As for Boston I think they kept and added the personnel they need to finish in second and still make the playoffs as a Wild Card team. I had a hard time picking third and fourth because I think the Orioles are going to be a solid team this year, but I can't see the Yankees spending all that money and not at least competing in their division so I put them third but injuries due to old age will hurt them. As for Toronto I just don't see the roster turning around how it has the potential too and I see them finishing last. That being said though I think all the teams will have 75 wins or more, making it a tight race from start to finish.
NL East:
Two teams in this division are true contenders and the others, not so much. Starting with last years division winner, the Braves, are one of the contenders. They paid a handful of their returners for their strong efforts a year ago and only really lost catcher Brian McCann to the Yankees. Their offense will still be productive with Freddie Freeman, Dan Uggla, Jason Heyward and the Upton brothers. The only question mark will be their pitching, which already took a hit with the loss of Brandon Beachy and Kris Medlen to season ending injuries. Regardless the potential is there still for the Braves to return to the postseason. Next up is the Nationals who have all the makings of a championship team by the looks of it. I know they struggled last year but a lot of that was a direct result of the injuries they faced throughout the season but this year I see them living up to expectations. There rotation could arguably be the best in the league with Stephen Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez, Jordan Zimmerman and the addition of Doug Fister during the off-season. Mix that with a solid offense led by Bryce Harper who returns healthy and ready to go and they could go a long way. The remaining teams are in full rebuilding mode or nearing it. The Mets added Curtis Granderson in the off-season to bolster their offense a bit alongside David Wright. I expect Daniel Murphy to have a better year and they have some young pitching talents in Zack Wheeler and Jon Niese. They also added the veteran Bartolo Colon who is coming off a year where he had a 2.65 ERA, but the bottom line is they are a year or two away from true contention. The Phillies like to think they are still a competitive team but age will get the best of them again and the Marlins have a lot of young pitching talents but will lack the offense to support it. Other than Giancarlo Stanton their offense doesn't scare me much at all. The division will look like this:
1. Washington
2. Atlanta (Wildcard)
3. New York
4. Philadelphia
5. Miami
I think Washington will take the division but Atlanta will still be in the playoffs as a wildcard. the other three squads like I mentioned are just still in rebuilding mode and will miss out this year. I do think the Mets though will develop a lot of that young talent, get Matt Harvey back and be in the mix for the 2015 season.
AL Central:
Detroit lost Prince Fielder but still seem to have control of the division with a dominant pitching rotation and a batting order with some pop. Miguel Cabrera's bat speaks for itself and names like Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer are commonplace. The Indians flew under the radar for much of last season but their offense was sixth best in the league and their pitching did enough to make the playoffs as a wildcard team. Justin Masterson will be their solid ace and I love the young talents they have in Danny Salazar and Zach McAllister. Their offense remains nearly the same so expect similar production from them. The Royals are nearly there and this year could be the end of the playoff drought for them. They did take a big hit by losing Ervin Santana but have some young arms as well behind a veteran in James Shields. They have a dynamic leadoff man in Norichika Aoki and I imagine Alex Gordan will rebound to be the hitter he is expected to be. With a solid ace to build around in soon to be 25 year old pitcher, Chris Sale, the White Sox can at least see the bright future ahead. Adding Jose Abreu from Cuba will give the offense some pop but not enough that they may need in a tough division. The Twins are a team with future stars in their system with Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano. Unfortunately Sano is out for the season with an injury and they still lack the pitching talent. Here's how I see the division shaping up:
1. Detroit
2. Kansas City (Wildcard)
3. Cleveland
4. Chicago
5. Minnesota
Detroit is still the team to beat in the central, and rightfully so they should win it again this year. I mentioned how close Kansas City was and I think this year they finally get over the hump and into the playoffs with a Cy Young type season from Shields in a contract year. Cleveland I think lost a little too much veteran pitching to return to the playoffs but with the young players they have they'll be back in it in 2015. Chicago and Minnesota are still a ways away from contending in this division but have some key pieces at the core of their rebuilding processes.
NL Central:
St. Louis has become the model franchise for acquiring and developing young talent into MLB ready players. Their pitching rotation remains solid with Adam Wainwright and Michael Wacha as the anchors and they added Jhonny Peralta in the off-season to fill a void at shortstop. The offense may take a bit of a hit without Carlos Beltran who went the the Yankees as a free agent but they certainly are a division contender. The Reds have a solid team set to return, even after losing Bronson Arroyo and Shin-Soo Choo. They bring up Billy Hamilton to the majors, who has the speed to potentially steal 100 bases, and Joey Votto will anchor the offense. The Pirates have a lot of great pieces with reigning NL MVP Andrew McCuthchen at the core, but the loses of some veterans like A.J. Burnett, Marlon Byrd and Justin Morneau could be costly. With Ryan Braun returning to the Brewers after his 65-game suspension there is anticipation to see if his production drops at all. My guess is it will and although adding Matt Garza to the rotation was nice, it may not be enough. The Cubs will look for Sterlin Castro to rebound from a poor season in 2013 and Jeff Samardzija headlines an average pitching rotation. Division will look like this:
1. St. Louis
2. Cincinnati (Wildcard)
3. Pittsburgh
4. Milwaukee
5. Chicago
AL West:
The A's keep finding ways to win the division and despite losing their dominant ace from last season Bartolon Calon to the Mets, they return Sonny Gray and add Scott Kazmir to keep their rotation strong. Although their lineup doesn't look too intimidating on paper they are a well oiled machine together and Yoenis Cespedes is the glue. Texas improved their offense immensely with the additions of Prince Fielder and Shin-Soo Choo. Their rotation is headlined by Yu Darvish who had an impressive 2.83 ERA last season but is a little lack luster from their. The Rangers will look to their offense to win a lot of games. The Angels struggled immensely compared to what they look like on paper. Locking up Mike Trout for the foreseeable future was an enormous move by them though and if they can get the bats of Hamilton and Pujols to wake up and the pitching to improve the could make strides in a competitive division. Seattle threw all they had at Robinson Cano in the off-season and won. Now lets see if he produces for them in year one of his 10 year deal. Even with Cano though Seattle will need some help from other young position player and pitchers to compete in the west. Houston is in full fledged rebuilding mode. Dexter Fowler, who the Astros received in a trade this off season, will be a spark for the offense but a lot of things need to go right for the Astros to come out on top.
1. Oakland
2. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
3. Texas
4. Seattle
5. Houston
Oakland wins the division for a third straight season continuing to perfect the Moneyball system. I think the Angels finally show signs of what they should be and leap Texas for second place, but don't quite make the playoffs. From there I think Texas drops off a bit due to some question marks in their rotation and come in at third. The big spending Mariners will be fourth, needing a few more pieces to make a playoff push in future years, and the Astros continue the rebuilding phase coming in fifth.
NL West:
Rounding out the preview is the NL West. The Dodgers won the division a year a go and enter this year as a favorite to do it again with the highest payroll in the major leagues. Clayton Kershaw is the ace of a terrific pitching staff followed by Zack Grinke, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Dan Harden and Paul Maholm. Their offense is electric from top to bottom with Yasiel Puig leading things off and Hanley Ramirez, Carl Crawford, Adrian Gonzalez and Andre Either all mixed in the middle. They are the team to beat in this division with the season underway. Arizona lacks the offense on paper but with Trumbo in their to help the cause I wouldn't be surprised to see them finish close to the playoffs, much like last year. They also added Bronson Arroyo to their rotation and if he can avoid injury, particularly a nagging bulging disk, her can certainly help the cause as well. The Giants remain what they have been the last few years having consistently strong pitching but lacking an efficient offense. One big key could be if Tim Lincecum returns to his old form that has gone to the wayside the last two seasons. To me the Giants are a big time sleeper because we have seen them win with this model of heavy pitching, average offense before. For the Padres I look for Jedd Gyorko and Yonder Alonso to take the next step at the ripe age of 25. Still their progress may not be enough for the Padres to have a run at the division. The Rockies may have trouble this year again in the West. Only one starting pitcher has a sub 4.00 ERA and other than Troy Tulowitzki their offense will be driven by aging veterans Michael Cuddyer and Justin Morneau. In the end the division will turn out in this order:
1. Los Angeles
2. Arizona
3. San Francisco
4. San Diego
5. Colorado
The Dodgers are definitely the full package and I don't see anyone taking the NL West title from them unless LA is hit with a number of injuries. Although I could see either Arizona or San Francisco coming in at second I just think the Diamondbacks will just edge out the Giants but miss the wild card spot by a few games. San Diego needs a lot of pieces and Colorado is bound for the basement of the division with all the holes they still have.
Playoff Breakdown:
Wildcard Round: BOS over KC, CIN over ATL
AL Division Series: BOS over DET in 5, TB over OAK in 5
NL Division Series: LAD over CIN in 5, WAS over STL in 5
AL Championship Series: TB over BOS in 7
NL Championship Series: WAS over LAD in 6
World Series: WAS over TB in 6
Like I said before, I'm buying into the hype this year. Two years ago the Nationals were without Strasburg for their playoff run and they have only improved in the year since. I think the injury bug that struck them in 2013 is a thing of the past, and the Nationals will rebound with a World Series Championship at seasons end.
AL East:
The AL East is arguably the toughest division this season with the Red Sox returning much of their championship roster from a year ago and four revamped and re-energized teams right there in the mix. The Yankees perhaps had the biggest off-season, spending nearly half a billion dollars adding Jacoby Ellsbury, Brian McCann, Carlos Beltran and Japanese phenom Masahiro Tanaka. The Rays spent most of the off-season focused on retaining core pieces of their playoff contending roster from last season and with two terrific rookies (Will Myers and Chris Archer) returning for their sophomore campaigns they look to only be an improved team. Then you have the Blue Jays who severely underperformed last season who have the personnel from top to bottom to make a quick turn around and an Orioles team that bolstered its offense with the pick up of Nelson Cruz and their pitching rotation with the signing of Ubaldo Jimenez that can certainly contend as well. With so many strong teams it is hard to pick just one but looking at it all on paper at the beginning of it all I think the final standings will turnout like this:1: Tampa Bay
2: Boston (Wildcard)
3: New York
4: Baltimore
I'm buying into Tampa Bay like much of the other experts. I think they have the pitching staff to beat anyone and their younger roster will back them and improve as the season progresses. As for Boston I think they kept and added the personnel they need to finish in second and still make the playoffs as a Wild Card team. I had a hard time picking third and fourth because I think the Orioles are going to be a solid team this year, but I can't see the Yankees spending all that money and not at least competing in their division so I put them third but injuries due to old age will hurt them. As for Toronto I just don't see the roster turning around how it has the potential too and I see them finishing last. That being said though I think all the teams will have 75 wins or more, making it a tight race from start to finish.
NL East:
Two teams in this division are true contenders and the others, not so much. Starting with last years division winner, the Braves, are one of the contenders. They paid a handful of their returners for their strong efforts a year ago and only really lost catcher Brian McCann to the Yankees. Their offense will still be productive with Freddie Freeman, Dan Uggla, Jason Heyward and the Upton brothers. The only question mark will be their pitching, which already took a hit with the loss of Brandon Beachy and Kris Medlen to season ending injuries. Regardless the potential is there still for the Braves to return to the postseason. Next up is the Nationals who have all the makings of a championship team by the looks of it. I know they struggled last year but a lot of that was a direct result of the injuries they faced throughout the season but this year I see them living up to expectations. There rotation could arguably be the best in the league with Stephen Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez, Jordan Zimmerman and the addition of Doug Fister during the off-season. Mix that with a solid offense led by Bryce Harper who returns healthy and ready to go and they could go a long way. The remaining teams are in full rebuilding mode or nearing it. The Mets added Curtis Granderson in the off-season to bolster their offense a bit alongside David Wright. I expect Daniel Murphy to have a better year and they have some young pitching talents in Zack Wheeler and Jon Niese. They also added the veteran Bartolo Colon who is coming off a year where he had a 2.65 ERA, but the bottom line is they are a year or two away from true contention. The Phillies like to think they are still a competitive team but age will get the best of them again and the Marlins have a lot of young pitching talents but will lack the offense to support it. Other than Giancarlo Stanton their offense doesn't scare me much at all. The division will look like this:
1. Washington
2. Atlanta (Wildcard)
3. New York
4. Philadelphia
5. Miami
I think Washington will take the division but Atlanta will still be in the playoffs as a wildcard. the other three squads like I mentioned are just still in rebuilding mode and will miss out this year. I do think the Mets though will develop a lot of that young talent, get Matt Harvey back and be in the mix for the 2015 season.
AL Central:
Detroit lost Prince Fielder but still seem to have control of the division with a dominant pitching rotation and a batting order with some pop. Miguel Cabrera's bat speaks for itself and names like Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer are commonplace. The Indians flew under the radar for much of last season but their offense was sixth best in the league and their pitching did enough to make the playoffs as a wildcard team. Justin Masterson will be their solid ace and I love the young talents they have in Danny Salazar and Zach McAllister. Their offense remains nearly the same so expect similar production from them. The Royals are nearly there and this year could be the end of the playoff drought for them. They did take a big hit by losing Ervin Santana but have some young arms as well behind a veteran in James Shields. They have a dynamic leadoff man in Norichika Aoki and I imagine Alex Gordan will rebound to be the hitter he is expected to be. With a solid ace to build around in soon to be 25 year old pitcher, Chris Sale, the White Sox can at least see the bright future ahead. Adding Jose Abreu from Cuba will give the offense some pop but not enough that they may need in a tough division. The Twins are a team with future stars in their system with Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano. Unfortunately Sano is out for the season with an injury and they still lack the pitching talent. Here's how I see the division shaping up:2. Kansas City (Wildcard)
3. Cleveland
4. Chicago
5. Minnesota
Detroit is still the team to beat in the central, and rightfully so they should win it again this year. I mentioned how close Kansas City was and I think this year they finally get over the hump and into the playoffs with a Cy Young type season from Shields in a contract year. Cleveland I think lost a little too much veteran pitching to return to the playoffs but with the young players they have they'll be back in it in 2015. Chicago and Minnesota are still a ways away from contending in this division but have some key pieces at the core of their rebuilding processes.
NL Central:
St. Louis has become the model franchise for acquiring and developing young talent into MLB ready players. Their pitching rotation remains solid with Adam Wainwright and Michael Wacha as the anchors and they added Jhonny Peralta in the off-season to fill a void at shortstop. The offense may take a bit of a hit without Carlos Beltran who went the the Yankees as a free agent but they certainly are a division contender. The Reds have a solid team set to return, even after losing Bronson Arroyo and Shin-Soo Choo. They bring up Billy Hamilton to the majors, who has the speed to potentially steal 100 bases, and Joey Votto will anchor the offense. The Pirates have a lot of great pieces with reigning NL MVP Andrew McCuthchen at the core, but the loses of some veterans like A.J. Burnett, Marlon Byrd and Justin Morneau could be costly. With Ryan Braun returning to the Brewers after his 65-game suspension there is anticipation to see if his production drops at all. My guess is it will and although adding Matt Garza to the rotation was nice, it may not be enough. The Cubs will look for Sterlin Castro to rebound from a poor season in 2013 and Jeff Samardzija headlines an average pitching rotation. Division will look like this:1. St. Louis
2. Cincinnati (Wildcard)
3. Pittsburgh
4. Milwaukee
5. Chicago
AL West:
The A's keep finding ways to win the division and despite losing their dominant ace from last season Bartolon Calon to the Mets, they return Sonny Gray and add Scott Kazmir to keep their rotation strong. Although their lineup doesn't look too intimidating on paper they are a well oiled machine together and Yoenis Cespedes is the glue. Texas improved their offense immensely with the additions of Prince Fielder and Shin-Soo Choo. Their rotation is headlined by Yu Darvish who had an impressive 2.83 ERA last season but is a little lack luster from their. The Rangers will look to their offense to win a lot of games. The Angels struggled immensely compared to what they look like on paper. Locking up Mike Trout for the foreseeable future was an enormous move by them though and if they can get the bats of Hamilton and Pujols to wake up and the pitching to improve the could make strides in a competitive division. Seattle threw all they had at Robinson Cano in the off-season and won. Now lets see if he produces for them in year one of his 10 year deal. Even with Cano though Seattle will need some help from other young position player and pitchers to compete in the west. Houston is in full fledged rebuilding mode. Dexter Fowler, who the Astros received in a trade this off season, will be a spark for the offense but a lot of things need to go right for the Astros to come out on top.
2. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
3. Texas
4. Seattle
5. Houston
Oakland wins the division for a third straight season continuing to perfect the Moneyball system. I think the Angels finally show signs of what they should be and leap Texas for second place, but don't quite make the playoffs. From there I think Texas drops off a bit due to some question marks in their rotation and come in at third. The big spending Mariners will be fourth, needing a few more pieces to make a playoff push in future years, and the Astros continue the rebuilding phase coming in fifth.
NL West:
Rounding out the preview is the NL West. The Dodgers won the division a year a go and enter this year as a favorite to do it again with the highest payroll in the major leagues. Clayton Kershaw is the ace of a terrific pitching staff followed by Zack Grinke, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Dan Harden and Paul Maholm. Their offense is electric from top to bottom with Yasiel Puig leading things off and Hanley Ramirez, Carl Crawford, Adrian Gonzalez and Andre Either all mixed in the middle. They are the team to beat in this division with the season underway. Arizona lacks the offense on paper but with Trumbo in their to help the cause I wouldn't be surprised to see them finish close to the playoffs, much like last year. They also added Bronson Arroyo to their rotation and if he can avoid injury, particularly a nagging bulging disk, her can certainly help the cause as well. The Giants remain what they have been the last few years having consistently strong pitching but lacking an efficient offense. One big key could be if Tim Lincecum returns to his old form that has gone to the wayside the last two seasons. To me the Giants are a big time sleeper because we have seen them win with this model of heavy pitching, average offense before. For the Padres I look for Jedd Gyorko and Yonder Alonso to take the next step at the ripe age of 25. Still their progress may not be enough for the Padres to have a run at the division. The Rockies may have trouble this year again in the West. Only one starting pitcher has a sub 4.00 ERA and other than Troy Tulowitzki their offense will be driven by aging veterans Michael Cuddyer and Justin Morneau. In the end the division will turn out in this order:
1. Los Angeles
2. Arizona
3. San Francisco
4. San Diego
5. Colorado
The Dodgers are definitely the full package and I don't see anyone taking the NL West title from them unless LA is hit with a number of injuries. Although I could see either Arizona or San Francisco coming in at second I just think the Diamondbacks will just edge out the Giants but miss the wild card spot by a few games. San Diego needs a lot of pieces and Colorado is bound for the basement of the division with all the holes they still have.
Playoff Breakdown:
Wildcard Round: BOS over KC, CIN over ATL
AL Division Series: BOS over DET in 5, TB over OAK in 5
NL Division Series: LAD over CIN in 5, WAS over STL in 5
AL Championship Series: TB over BOS in 7
NL Championship Series: WAS over LAD in 6
World Series: WAS over TB in 6
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